Fund.TBD
Swing Trader, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
US large-cap equities' rally is narrowing, with breadth weakening considerably this month and every major secondary indicator now negative. Per @jasongoepfert, the S&P 500 just logged the most new lows ever on a day it poked above a prior record close, and the indexes hide damage resembling a 3-4% drawdown. This is not a bear call: when indicators soured in late January, a correction began only in March. The stance is to stay with the leaders while respecting a receding backdrop. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100 faces short-term downside because a failed push to a new high leaves crowded bullish sentiment vulnerable to a break below. Despite record institutional accumulation and a long-term bullish position, five months of chop, a failed ATH and an attempted loss of the bullish trend favor hedging rather than adding leverage. x.com x.comÂ
There is a reasonable chance, about 35%, of a 10-15% drawdown in the Nasdaq and Magnificent 7 before year-end, alongside a return of value investing. Jim Chanos' chart reinforces the setup for what triggers a drawdown in tech-dense passive indexes, which buy indiscriminately by market cap when dollars come in and sell the same way when they leave. x.com x.comÂ
Bubbles rarely end when expected and tend to run much further, so the Nasdaq looks to be in a shakeout rather than at the end of its advance. Nasdaq at 40,000 or 50,000 is not out of the question in a melt-up; those who buy this dip will be greatly rewarded if positioned correctly. x.com x.comÂ
Forward risks matter more than good earnings for the Nasdaq now. The index looks to be topping and has a good shot at 28,000 before a rally after the midterms; tomorrow's PCE and GDP releases are unlikely to help, and this week's lows could break. x.com x.comÂ
Nasdaq-100 downside could accelerate if QQQ falls below $712: dealer positioning at $700 and $690 would fuel the move unless the index reclaims its moving averages and breaks upward. July and September FOMC lows remain untouched, something that has not persisted across two consecutive meetings; taking out at least one in the next week would not be surprising. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq has likely bottomed or is very close, with the bull market intact on fundamentals. Its RSI hit 30, a sign of seller exhaustion, and most AI infrastructure stocks near that level are buys. JPMorgan says Korea's leverage unwind is complete, and Wednesday's largest retail selloff since the March 2020 crash marked capitulation. Earnings keep crushing, with capex rising and insatiable compute demand per Mark Zuckerberg and Microsoft. Summer chop for a few weeks would not be surprising. … Show more
Accumulating macro headwinds have sharply raised Nasdaq 100 risk, so protect the portfolio. The bull market looks near its end rather than its beginning, although the timing of the top remains uncertain. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100 faces up to 43% downside back to last year's lows as conditions start to look like 1973-style stagflation. A Fed hike is on the table, and AI capex is running into an energy bottleneck. After gains like SanDisk's 4,000% in a year, investors likely want to take profits. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq's 10%-plus pullback from June to July was healthy, wiping out leverage and crushing artificially boosted names, so the market is ready for its next leg up. A market that keeps ripping higher without pullbacks becomes very unhealthy. x.comÂ
US tech stocks face a short-term liquidity drain as institutions sell existing tech and AI hardware holdings to fund the SpaceX IPO on June 12. The deal will pull $75B-$85B of cash from the market, and funds must back their orders with capital by Thursday night. An early-week dead-cat bounce could give way to peak drain midweek, after which over-allocated or unused cash should flow back into tech. Macro data or a rogue headline could easily send markets the opposite way. x.comÂ