Rising S&P earnings revisions and a Nasdaq valuation far below the 2000 bubble level argue against a bull trap in US large caps. Nasdaq trades at 18x forward earnings versus over 80x in 2000. Positive breadth divergences, record short ETF exposure and put volume, and semiconductors waking up add to the case. In all 19 post-midterm instances cited, markets were very green over the following 12 months. x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq-100 looks like a good buy here. x.com 

Forward risks matter more than good earnings for the Nasdaq now. The index looks to be topping and has a good shot at 28,000 before a rally after the midterms; tomorrow's PCE and GDP releases are unlikely to help, and this week's lows could break. x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 looks less like a bubble because it has become significantly cheaper over the last year. Per Mike Zaccardi, its P/E is near 23x versus almost 30x a year ago. x.com 

The AI supercycle is backed by real profit growth, not a bubble. Nasdaq-100 earnings-per-share growth just crossed 50%, faster than the post-GFC rebound and every expansion cycle of the last two decades, with revenue growth rising alongside it. Bubbles are built on multiple expansion and nonexistent earnings; this is an acceleration in real cash flow. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 faces short-term downside because a failed push to a new high leaves crowded bullish sentiment vulnerable to a break below. Despite record institutional accumulation and a long-term bullish position, five months of chop, a failed ATH and an attempted loss of the bullish trend favor hedging rather than adding leverage. x.com  x.com 

S&P 500 stocks look cheap relative to expected earnings as forecasts grow faster than share prices. Forward P/E has fallen below 19, its lowest since 2023 and slightly below its 10-year average, despite the index nearing all-time highs. Goldman Sachs' earnings beat, with net income up 29% year over year, suggests earnings support extends beyond AI. x.com 

The biggest risk for US large-cap equities is the S&P 500 trading at 20x earnings without the Nasdaq 100's growth rate. Since 2000 the S&P 500 price rose 6.1% a year, matching 6.2% M2 money-supply growth; with dividends it returned 8.1%, only about 1.7% a year after adjusting for money growth. Nominal wealth is not real wealth. x.com  x.com 

US technology shares are way overvalued for realistic growth expectations. Their decline is a repricing toward more reasonable expectations, not the Black Monday-style crash some over-leveraged tech holders predict. x.com  x.com 

Adobe's fair value is about 14x earnings, and nothing suggests the multiple should expand, so the stock's upside is capped at EPS growth. That is a good bet only if Adobe's EPS growth beats the Nasdaq 100's, and there is little confidence it will. x.com  x.com  x.com