Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are not buys because their sales multiples are too high, even after the selloff. Rocket Lab trades at 30x sales after a 14% drawdown, while AST SpaceMobile trades at 138x sales. x.com 

Rocket Lab's valuation already more than bakes in space data centers. At a $74B market cap, over 74 times sales, Rocket Lab had better be building more than just data centers in space. This is a call on the price, not on the underlying quality of the business. x.com  x.com 

Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.com 

Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Repeated Neutron delays undermine the premium on Rocket Lab stock when execution keeps slipping. The company does not live or die by Neutron, but 50x sales was unjustified; even at 26x 2027 sales, a legitimate price suggests another 50% decline. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab should see money flow back once SpaceX's rich valuation corrects. SpaceX's listing day could be sell-the-news, pulling Rocket Lab back to $90-100 at most, but at roughly 90-100x sales it is valued about the same as SpaceX at around 115x. With expected Nasdaq inclusion on June 22 and capital rotating from SpaceX into quality space stocks, a lower-high move toward the $130 target banks just raised is possible. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab's fundamentals do not yet justify buying, even after a 55% drop took it to around its 200-day moving average. It still lacks positive earnings, net income and growing free cash flow. The upside could be significant if the business executes over the next few years, but more proof of profitability is needed first; it stays on the watch list. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab is still expensive at 30x next year's sales even after falling 60%. x.com 

Rocket Lab is a great company worth owning at a discount, and its elevated volatility pays well to wait for one. It is the only US public rocket company at scale, its backlog grows every quarter and revenue is up 55% year over year. Its implied volatility is among the highest in the space sector, with IV rank above 60%, while weekly EMA clouds are green and daily RSI just hit 44. x.com 

Rocket Lab's valuation has gotten ahead of itself, and about $50 a share, or $30 billion, is a more sensible price. Projecting revenue several years out with strong execution and applying 20x sales is a useful check, but launching rockets is hard and demands a sufficient margin of safety; at 15x sales instead of 20x, fair value falls further. The stock may never get to $50, since stocks can stay expensive for long periods. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com