Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab is probably worth about $10 billion, far below the nearly $50 billion it trades at. @FindleysFinance notes trailing revenue of $769 million and operating cash flow of negative $222 million. x.com 

Rocket Lab's growing Space Systems business positions it to provide more than launches for the space economy. It generated $189.5M in Q2, 81% of revenue; if its pending Iridium acquisition closes, it would gain a global satellite communications network. At about $51, this is one of the most compelling long-term opportunities in the space sector over 3-5 years, provided it keeps executing. Neutron's launch has slipped to 2027, and execution risks remain. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab's valuation has gotten ahead of itself, and about $50 a share, or $30 billion, is a more sensible price. Projecting revenue several years out with strong execution and applying 20x sales is a useful check, but launching rockets is hard and demands a sufficient margin of safety; at 15x sales instead of 20x, fair value falls further. The stock may never get to $50, since stocks can stay expensive for long periods. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab's roughly $80 billion valuation, including its newly announced $3 billion dilution, would require $3-4 billion in profit to be reasonable, and there is no scenario where it earns $3 billion within three years. The market can stay illogical longer than expected, so it could still run 50% before crashing 80%; the same applies to AST SpaceMobile. x.com  x.com 

Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab is a company worth loving but not a buy at all at these levels, at 85x price-to-sales, worth betting against even as a retail favorite. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab is still expensive at 30x next year's sales even after falling 60%. x.com 

Rocket Lab should double by June 2026 if SpaceX IPOs at around $1.5T, because as the clear number two with similar capabilities it is valued at only $38B, a gap that looks far too big. At $1.7T, SpaceX would trade at over 200x its roughly $8B in EBITDA, as reported on the All-In podcast, an insane multiple. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab is mispriced because the whole company carries an aggressive non-prime valuation when perhaps only a minority of it merits one. In a take described as devastating for Rocket Lab, the bulk of the business deserves a prime valuation and only a minority a premium non-prime one. That reverses this year's more interesting trades, where companies at prime-ish valuations held a large non-prime component. x.com