Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductors should keep working through year-end, as sentiment on the tech conference circuit is clearly max long AI and semis. Infrastructure software and security names that have pulled back or consolidated should probably work too, while bottom-fishing in this year's losers will not. x.com 

Semiconductors look to be topping and should resolve lower into September, as the market prices in slowing capex in 2027. Strong earnings beats look in the rearview mirror; if Q2 was near peak, big beats are expected, and record backlogs are typical at peak demand and can be cut fast once spending slows. The semiconductor ETF has completed its upside correction and is losing steam, with new lows likely by September, which would weigh on a Nasdaq expected to slip toward its 200-day average. x.com  … Show more

Semiconductor stocks have not priced in a record wave of AI chip demand. Taiwan chip exports jumped over 20% in a single month and demand is 30% above three months earlier, the biggest in history, while Korea is also seeing record semiconductor demand, up 30% on mid-2026. A step change in demand comes while semis are still cheaper than before the AI boom. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor trade faces a capex growth ceiling even if AI delivers what bulls expect. Spending cannot compound at 70-100% a year indefinitely, and compute per dollar roughly doubles every two years, so the same budget buys more capacity later. Today's chip valuations also demand years of 20% AI earnings growth beyond 2028: roughly 10.9 extra years for AMD, 8.9 for ASML, 7 for Marvell and 6.4 for TSMC, versus 1.6 for Broadcom and 0.8 for Nvidia; Micron needs none under the chart's assumptions. … Show more

Semiconductor earnings have outpaced prices, making the selloff look more like forced positioning than a broken growth case. Since January 2025, the SOX rose about 114% while reconstructed forward earnings rose about 198%; the estimate is approximate. Hedge funds sold global tech at a greater-than-three-standard-deviation pace in October 5-16, a pattern seen near earlier lows, though another sharp flush could come before a reversal. x.com 

Semiconductors are more likely to go up than down from here at current valuations, since 2028 is probably a 20-30% capex growth year. AI capabilities and model revenue are ramping at an unprecedented pace and chip spending drives earnings growth for the whole market, while multiples stay reasonable on cyclical fears. The risk: model revenue added about $170 billion in 2026 against $780 billion of capex, and if capex flattens after an expected $1.1 trillion in 2027, multiples may stay low. x.com 

Semiconductors aren't bottoming, because a major player who lost tens of billions just raised about a billion to pile into semiconductor calls, as revealed via @zerohedge. Ken Griffin will most likely once again take money from Leopold Aschenbrenner. x.com 

Semiconductor earnings will be good, supporting a likely run into Q3 results. The group looks oversold, and the Anthropic/CoreWeave news is noise. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com