Snowflake's upside is limited even in a dream scenario. If it grows 35% a year for seven years and EBITDA margins expand from 16% to 43%, ignoring stock compensation, it reaches $43 billion of revenue and $18.5 billion of EBITDA. Once growth slows to about 10%, that is roughly where Salesforce is today, so all that winning yields only about 2x the current enterprise value. x.com 

Snowflake's valuation looks full after more than doubling since May on an AI inflection story, given five years of promised inflections that didn't materialize. Stock-based compensation remains heavy at $1.6B against FY2026 revenue of $4.7B, though dilution has been kept in check lately. At about 23x EV/revenue, or 19x forward, it sits near the top of its 2-3 year range. A Databricks IPO could make investors see Snowflake as old relic tech. x.com  x.com 

Snowflake's revenue growth has far outpaced its stock return, leaving a valuation disconnect. Revenue rose 363% over five years to $1.55 billion quarterly while the shares gained just 19%; that disparity looks hard to justify. x.com 

Snowflake now looks really expensive against a $180-200 valuation, even though the business remains strong. It is growing around 30% and pushing hard into AI with its cloud data solutions, which could drive strong growth for years. x.com 

Snowflake looks expensive against its sales at $316.77. It trades at 21x sales and 14x next year's, while software companies usually get 8x. Fair value runs $165.06 to $210.08, about 8x next year's sales, so buyers pay 51% above fair, and the forward view already assumes 39% more sales than trailing. This is a valuation read only, based on reported earnings and estimates. x.com 

Snowflake remains headed to $390 a share by end-2027 because investors have yet to fully realize it benefits from AI rather than being disrupted by it. It guides for 31% growth and roughly $1.5B of free cash flow, moving toward $2B a year. Buying before the market latches onto that narrative captures the easy money, while waiting for market clues means trailing the market. x.com 

Snowflake has not solved its stock-compensation problem just because the stock jumped, and its valuation still is not justified by any visible path to real profits. SBC still eats 29% of revenue, GAAP EBIT margin is -24%, and future GAAP earnings remain wildly uncertain. @Sam_Badawi argues the 38% jump on reaccelerating growth shows Snowflake growing out of its SBC problem, but the market simply does not care about the bottom line right now. It remains speculative and could work. x.com 

Snowflake is too expensive at 55x FY2027 free cash flow because stock-based compensation dwarfs that cash flow. FY2027 Q1 showed $265.5M of non-GAAP adjusted FCF against $433.7M of SBC, or 163% of FCF; trailing-12-month FCF is $1.2B versus $1.6B of SBC. That much dilution for 30% revenue growth makes it uninvestable when better stocks exist: Reddit's SBC is 21% of FCF, it grows twice as fast, and its non-GAAP net margin is 42% versus Snowflake's 10.6%. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Snowflake is showing real AI-driven sales acceleration, and analysts questioning its buybacks and 2028 earnings guide misread it. Net revenue retention is 126%, @WisemanCap notes AI workloads carry higher gross margins than traditional ones, and management sees a $460B TAM by 2031. SBC fell from 50% of revenue to 29% last quarter and could be about 20% in a year; at under $90B EV it trades at 9-10x next year's revenue. Not cheap, but top line and margins drive free cash flow. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Snowflake is still not GAAP profitable at a $125 billion valuation because it keeps chasing top-line growth at any cost. x.com