Snowflake's revenue growth has far outpaced its stock return, leaving a valuation disconnect. Revenue rose 363% over five years to $1.55 billion quarterly while the shares gained just 19%; that disparity looks hard to justify. x.comÂ
Philip
Founder & CEO of Intrinsiqq, Value & Growth Investor
Snowflake combines accelerating growth with margin expansion, which justifies a valuation that is not cheap. EPS beat as total revenue rose 35% and product revenue rose 37%, a third straight quarter of acceleration. Remaining performance obligations grew 30%, net revenue retention was 126%, and guidance rose for product revenue, gross margin and operating margin. x.comÂ
Snowflake remains headed to $390 a share by end-2027 because investors have yet to fully realize it benefits from AI rather than being disrupted by it. It guides for 31% growth and roughly $1.5B of free cash flow, moving toward $2B a year. Buying before the market latches onto that narrative captures the easy money, while waiting for market clues means trailing the market. x.comÂ
Snowflake's valuation is even more detached now than in 2021: estimates are lower, the risk-free rate is higher, and the stock price is the same. Even with 33% growth implying $11-12B of revenue a year out, a $130B value against about $200M of profit makes little sense; $20B of profit far in the future is worth about $2B today. With the 10-year at 4.8%, earnings ten years out are worth only 62% of their value under zero rates. Per 2021 forecasts it should have had over $20B in revenue this year. … Show more
Snowflake is showing real AI-driven sales acceleration, and analysts questioning its buybacks and 2028 earnings guide misread it. Net revenue retention is 126%, @WisemanCap notes AI workloads carry higher gross margins than traditional ones, and management sees a $460B TAM by 2031. SBC fell from 50% of revenue to 29% last quarter and could be about 20% in a year; at under $90B EV it trades at 9-10x next year's revenue. Not cheap, but top line and margins drive free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Snowflake's blowout quarter shows enterprise consumption accelerating structurally, putting it back atop cloud infrastructure. Product revenue rose 36.5% to $1.49 billion, 5.1% above guidance, clearing the 36% bar and showing first-quarter acceleration was no one-off. Non-GAAP operating margin hit 15.5% versus 12.5% guided and adjusted EPS was $0.62 versus $0.45, so Cortex Code and AI workloads are scaling at high margins. The bull case needs product revenue growth near 40% by Q4. x.com x.comÂ
Snowflake's valuation looks full after more than doubling since May on an AI inflection story, given five years of promised inflections that didn't materialize. Stock-based compensation remains heavy at $1.6B against FY2026 revenue of $4.7B, though dilution has been kept in check lately. At about 23x EV/revenue, or 19x forward, it sits near the top of its 2-3 year range. A Databricks IPO could make investors see Snowflake as old relic tech. x.com x.comÂ
Snowflake shows why it pays to own higher-multiple companies hitting on all cylinders rather than broken value names. x.comÂ
Snowflake is overlooked AI infrastructure because every enterprise AI model needs clean, governed data to run on. It has 126% net revenue retention, $9.77 billion of contracted future revenue and 813 of the world's 2,000 largest companies as customers. x.comÂ
Snowflake's upside is limited even in a dream scenario. If it grows 35% a year for seven years and EBITDA margins expand from 16% to 43%, ignoring stock compensation, it reaches $43 billion of revenue and $18.5 billion of EBITDA. Once growth slows to about 10%, that is roughly where Salesforce is today, so all that winning yields only about 2x the current enterprise value. x.comÂ
Snowflake's Q2 shows AI is supercharging data platforms rather than cannibalizing them, as Cortex and AI workloads turn into a compute flywheel. Product revenue rose 37% to $1.49B against 30% guidance, RPO grew 30% to $9.0B and enterprise consumption is clearly accelerating. x.comÂ