Snowflake shows why it pays to own higher-multiple companies hitting on all cylinders rather than broken value names. x.comÂ
David Prince
US Equity/Options Fund Manager, Mentor at T3 Live
Snowflake's revenue growth has far outpaced its stock return, leaving a valuation disconnect. Revenue rose 363% over five years to $1.55 billion quarterly while the shares gained just 19%; that disparity looks hard to justify. x.comÂ
Snowflake remains headed to $390 a share by end-2027 because investors have yet to fully realize it benefits from AI rather than being disrupted by it. It guides for 31% growth and roughly $1.5B of free cash flow, moving toward $2B a year. Buying before the market latches onto that narrative captures the easy money, while waiting for market clues means trailing the market. x.comÂ
Snowflake's valuation looks full after more than doubling since May on an AI inflection story, given five years of promised inflections that didn't materialize. Stock-based compensation remains heavy at $1.6B against FY2026 revenue of $4.7B, though dilution has been kept in check lately. At about 23x EV/revenue, or 19x forward, it sits near the top of its 2-3 year range. A Databricks IPO could make investors see Snowflake as old relic tech. x.com x.comÂ
Snowflake combines accelerating growth with margin expansion, which justifies a valuation that is not cheap. EPS beat as total revenue rose 35% and product revenue rose 37%, a third straight quarter of acceleration. Remaining performance obligations grew 30%, net revenue retention was 126%, and guidance rose for product revenue, gross margin and operating margin. x.comÂ
Snowflake is becoming a key platform for enterprise and agentic AI, because companies deploying AI agents need real-time, governed data and Snowflake sits at the center of that workflow. A strong earnings and guidance beat triggered a power earnings gap on four times normal volume, and the gap's low remains key support. x.comÂ
Snowflake's valuation is even more detached now than in 2021: estimates are lower, the risk-free rate is higher, and the stock price is the same. Even with 33% growth implying $11-12B of revenue a year out, a $130B value against about $200M of profit makes little sense; $20B of profit far in the future is worth about $2B today. With the 10-year at 4.8%, earnings ten years out are worth only 62% of their value under zero rates. Per 2021 forecasts it should have had over $20B in revenue this year. … Show more
Snowflake looks like the next big mover: a leading software name one step from a base breakout while software sentiment sits at lows. x.comÂ
Snowflake's blowout quarter shows enterprise consumption accelerating structurally, putting it back atop cloud infrastructure. Product revenue rose 36.5% to $1.49 billion, 5.1% above guidance, clearing the 36% bar and showing first-quarter acceleration was no one-off. Non-GAAP operating margin hit 15.5% versus 12.5% guided and adjusted EPS was $0.62 versus $0.45, so Cortex Code and AI workloads are scaling at high margins. The bull case needs product revenue growth near 40% by Q4. x.com x.comÂ
Snowflake has not solved its stock-compensation problem just because the stock jumped, and its valuation still is not justified by any visible path to real profits. SBC still eats 29% of revenue, GAAP EBIT margin is -24%, and future GAAP earnings remain wildly uncertain. @Sam_Badawi argues the 38% jump on reaccelerating growth shows Snowflake growing out of its SBC problem, but the market simply does not care about the bottom line right now. It remains speculative and could work. x.comÂ
Snowflake is overlooked AI infrastructure because every enterprise AI model needs clean, governed data to run on. It has 126% net revenue retention, $9.77 billion of contracted future revenue and 813 of the world's 2,000 largest companies as customers. x.comÂ