Adobe's 8x P/E signals that its outlook numbers are unreliable, its capital allocation is poor and it is likely a casualty of AI. It spent all its free cash flow buying back shares at $400 and is on a direct collision course with AI; no one can say its products will be as crucial as in the last two decades. Unlike Meta in 2022, whose ads business was never impaired, there are too many unknowns. It could work or stagnate for years, so it sits in the too-hard bucket even if multiples scream buy. … Show more

Adobe's record 12.72% free cash flow yield shows it is cheap, but not yet that the selling is over. That yield, more than triple its norm, signals the market expects AI to shrink its cash flows over the coming years. Forward earnings have more than doubled in five years while the forward P/E fell from about 50x to 15x. A cheap stock can stay cheap; it takes a few quarters of steady revenue and growing cash flow to prove the AI fear wrong, with buybacks gaining power the longer it stays low. … Show more

Adobe is priced below its Covid-crash intraday low even though it now makes 3x more money with 20% fewer shares, and its best run of profit growth has come during the AI era. It beat last quarter's guidance and raised its full-year outlook, yet trades around 10x current, a low price for growth that should destroy the bear narrative. It also bought back 9.5M shares for over $2.3B. x.com  x.com 

Adobe faces a Kodak moment as AI-native design tools emerge, so its 2026 revenue means little. Per @faststocknewss, Google Labs turned Stitch into an AI-native design canvas that turns natural language into high-fidelity UI designs, with a design agent that reasons across full projects. Adobe should pay off its $6B of debt before any buybacks. x.com 

Adobe's stock is unattractive to investors while the AI rally dominates, even though the company itself is nowhere near dying. Once the AI ride cools off a bit, Adobe can see some rebound. x.com 

Adobe trades at 2018 price levels even though revenue has grown nearly 200% since then, from $2.2B to $6.4B, and its $25B buyback on a $100B market cap amounts to a quarter of the company. The bottom may not be in yet, but the market won't ignore it forever. x.com 

Adobe remains the best example of what not to buy because AI has had minimal impact and its backlog is slowing rapidly. Management chose user acquisition over monetization, as Duolingo did, leaving open whether users stay when prices rise; for now, waiting to monetize looks the same as being unable to. Free or cheaper tools that match its specialist subscriptions could cut usage, RPO and cash generation. When acceleration and margin expansion are everywhere, owning neither makes little sense. … Show more

Adobe's problem is no longer valuation but bad sentiment toward software companies. It fell after hours in sympathy with ServiceNow despite trading around 15x trailing and 10x forward earnings while still growing 10%, and none of that matters right now. To recover, Adobe needs more collaborative projects and joint events with leading AI companies so it is seen as definitively part of the future. x.com 

Adobe's post-earnings drop looks like irrational sentiment, not a fundamental problem. Revenue and EPS beat, Q3 and full-year guidance rose, and AI-related revenue grew over 300% year over year, showing AI is becoming a growth engine rather than destroying Adobe. It keeps buying back stock at scale, and given its profitability and growth the valuation isn't expensive; long term it remains an undervalued software company. x.com 

Adobe looks dead because AI can now generate images in 0.6 seconds, undercutting the value case for buying it. The stock is losing its 200-month average, a 20-year average price that only a truly dead name breaks, making it something to avoid. x.com