Adobe looks dead because AI can now generate images in 0.6 seconds, undercutting the value case for buying it. The stock is losing its 200-month average, a 20-year average price that only a truly dead name breaks, making it something to avoid. x.com 

Adobe remains the best example of what not to buy because AI has had minimal impact and its backlog is slowing rapidly. Management chose user acquisition over monetization, as Duolingo did, leaving open whether users stay when prices rise; for now, waiting to monetize looks the same as being unable to. Free or cheaper tools that match its specialist subscriptions could cut usage, RPO and cash generation. When acceleration and margin expansion are everywhere, owning neither makes little sense. … Show more

Adobe is a bit undervalued, though not significantly, at 13x earnings with 13% revenue growth. Its falling profit margin is concerning, and AI threats are growing as image generation improves. x.com 

Adobe's 8x P/E signals that its outlook numbers are unreliable, its capital allocation is poor and it is likely a casualty of AI. It spent all its free cash flow buying back shares at $400 and is on a direct collision course with AI; no one can say its products will be as crucial as in the last two decades. Unlike Meta in 2022, whose ads business was never impaired, there are too many unknowns. It could work or stagnate for years, so it sits in the too-hard bucket even if multiples scream buy. … Show more

Adobe's problem is no longer valuation but bad sentiment toward software companies. It fell after hours in sympathy with ServiceNow despite trading around 15x trailing and 10x forward earnings while still growing 10%, and none of that matters right now. To recover, Adobe needs more collaborative projects and joint events with leading AI companies so it is seen as definitively part of the future. x.com 

Adobe's post-earnings drop looks like irrational sentiment, not a fundamental problem. Revenue and EPS beat, Q3 and full-year guidance rose, and AI-related revenue grew over 300% year over year, showing AI is becoming a growth engine rather than destroying Adobe. It keeps buying back stock at scale, and given its profitability and growth the valuation isn't expensive; long term it remains an undervalued software company. x.com 

Adobe is falling despite growing revenue and earnings because AI is disrupting its core image- and PDF-editing products, and that kind of disruption simply takes time to show up in the numbers. Newspapers after the internet and BlackBerry after the iPhone followed the same path. Anyone using AI to edit images or PDFs can see it. x.com 

Adobe is not the SaaS stock to buy, even though SaaS stocks should see a revival, because more exciting second-tier names with similar buyback programs are on sale. Adobe's new $25B buyback, enough to retire about 25% of its shares at the current price, shows high confidence in its resilience rather than cash flows imploding from AI disruption. x.com  x.com 

Adobe's AI-first ARR passing $500M and growing more than 150% year over year is a strong answer to the belief that AI will only hurt the company. AI is still a small part of the business, but the quarter was a really solid beat and raise. x.com 

Adobe's core value is being eroded because gen AI increasingly excels at what Adobe did better than anyone: generating and editing images, video, audio and designs. Adobe likely has no proprietary data advantage, or at least none visible, the gap a quoted post says would leave it more exposed to AI disruption. Bulls may know better. x.com