Adobe remains the best example of what not to buy because AI has had minimal impact and its backlog is slowing rapidly. Management chose user acquisition over monetization, as Duolingo did, leaving open whether users stay when prices rise; for now, waiting to monetize looks the same as being unable to. Free or cheaper tools that match its specialist subscriptions could cut usage, RPO and cash generation. When acceleration and margin expansion are everywhere, owning neither makes little sense. … Show more

Adobe could easily go the way of PayPal, its best analog: a mature consumer-facing large-cap tech company that attempted a poorly received large acquisition as growth stalled, then changed executives. Growth is likely to decelerate further amid pricing pressure, buybacks won't matter much in the short term, and more talent will leave once a CEO is picked. The stock is only optically cheap. x.com  x.com 

Adobe is a strong company hit harder than it should be, as the market treats a temporary slowdown as permanent decline. It fits the undervalued setup of a real moat, temporary rather than structural problems and extremely negative sentiment, where the price has fallen more than the fundamentals, lowering risk and raising upside. Great companies adapt and recover. x.com 

Adobe's consistently decelerating ARR growth is a bad sign that many bulls overlook, though it doesn't mean the company is going to zero. x.com 

Adobe's 8x P/E signals that its outlook numbers are unreliable, its capital allocation is poor and it is likely a casualty of AI. It spent all its free cash flow buying back shares at $400 and is on a direct collision course with AI; no one can say its products will be as crucial as in the last two decades. Unlike Meta in 2022, whose ads business was never impaired, there are too many unknowns. It could work or stagnate for years, so it sits in the too-hard bucket even if multiples scream buy. … Show more

Adobe is a bit undervalued, though not significantly, at 13x earnings with 13% revenue growth. Its falling profit margin is concerning, and AI threats are growing as image generation improves. x.com 

Adobe looks dead because AI can now generate images in 0.6 seconds, undercutting the value case for buying it. The stock is losing its 200-month average, a 20-year average price that only a truly dead name breaks, making it something to avoid. x.com 

Adobe's forward guidance was terrible, so it could follow other SaaS stocks that have sold off sharply. x.com  x.com 

Adobe is pushing off 8-year lows as revenue growth accelerates, after testing that range on its highest weekly volume ever, a sign the market may have it wrong. x.com 

Adobe is best avoided because a very low valuation comes with a highly uncertain future, making the situation amazingly complex. x.com