Adobe is not re-accelerating: management guides growth down to 9-10% with operating margins falling, and more pressure lies ahead. That makes buying every dip at about 16x earnings a mistake, even as @qualtrim points to 12% revenue growth and a 47.4% operating margin. x.com  x.com 

Adobe's consistently decelerating ARR growth is a bad sign that many bulls overlook, though it doesn't mean the company is going to zero. x.com 

Adobe is a strong company hit harder than it should be, as the market treats a temporary slowdown as permanent decline. It fits the undervalued setup of a real moat, temporary rather than structural problems and extremely negative sentiment, where the price has fallen more than the fundamentals, lowering risk and raising upside. Great companies adapt and recover. x.com 

Adobe's core value is being eroded because gen AI increasingly excels at what Adobe did better than anyone: generating and editing images, video, audio and designs. Adobe likely has no proprietary data advantage, or at least none visible, the gap a quoted post says would leave it more exposed to AI disruption. Bulls may know better. x.com 

Adobe's 8x P/E signals that its outlook numbers are unreliable, its capital allocation is poor and it is likely a casualty of AI. It spent all its free cash flow buying back shares at $400 and is on a direct collision course with AI; no one can say its products will be as crucial as in the last two decades. Unlike Meta in 2022, whose ads business was never impaired, there are too many unknowns. It could work or stagnate for years, so it sits in the too-hard bucket even if multiples scream buy. … Show more

Adobe trades at 2018 price levels even though revenue has grown nearly 200% since then, from $2.2B to $6.4B, and its $25B buyback on a $100B market cap amounts to a quarter of the company. The bottom may not be in yet, but the market won't ignore it forever. x.com 

Adobe could easily go the way of PayPal, its best analog: a mature consumer-facing large-cap tech company that attempted a poorly received large acquisition as growth stalled, then changed executives. Growth is likely to decelerate further amid pricing pressure, buybacks won't matter much in the short term, and more talent will leave once a CEO is picked. The stock is only optically cheap. x.com  x.com 

Adobe remains the best example of what not to buy because AI has had minimal impact and its backlog is slowing rapidly. Management chose user acquisition over monetization, as Duolingo did, leaving open whether users stay when prices rise; for now, waiting to monetize looks the same as being unable to. Free or cheaper tools that match its specialist subscriptions could cut usage, RPO and cash generation. When acceleration and margin expansion are everywhere, owning neither makes little sense. … Show more

Adobe is priced below its Covid-crash intraday low even though it now makes 3x more money with 20% fewer shares, and its best run of profit growth has come during the AI era. It beat last quarter's guidance and raised its full-year outlook, yet trades around 10x current, a low price for growth that should destroy the bear narrative. It also bought back 9.5M shares for over $2.3B. x.com  x.com 

Adobe is shaping up as PayPal 2.0, a stock influencers will pump while no one makes money. Its conference call was a complete dumpster fire, with the CEO and CFO looking checked out. The mention of SEMrush and the talk of a freemium model drew only ridicule. x.com