Frank Curzio
Founder & CEO of Curzio Research, Wall Street Unplugged Host
Gold miners have not yet priced in what record gold prices mean for the sector, and the window to get in is shrinking. Newmont beat Q1 profit estimates even though output fell, showing the gold price tailwind is covering operational shortfalls; earnings should rise further when production normalizes. The majors have pricing power they have not had in years and operating leverage is building, while most investors remain in tech. x.com x.comÂ
Gold miners, unlike gold itself, turn a higher gold price into compounding cash returns. On a path to $8,000 gold, margins would widen far beyond today's roughly $2,400 an ounce even if all-in sustaining costs rose a third to $2,650. Free cash flow per share is at a record of about $15.70, roughly tripled since 2024, and the industry is buying back stock rather than mines, a combination never seen before. Relative to the S&P 500, miners have never been cheaper, not in 2008, 2015 or 2020. x.com … Show more
Gold miners, led by Newmont, stand to gain from 2026's rotation into hard assets as inflation stays entrenched. US CPI sits at 3.8%, nearly double the Fed's target, with energy up 18% and natural gas up 28% year over year, leaving cash and paper assets as losers and gold as the ultimate inflation hedge. Central banks in China, India, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are expected to buy nearly 1,000 tons of gold this year. Newmont is the largest blue-chip gold miner on the planet. x.comÂ
Gold miners have further to fall because gold is acting as just another risk asset. Rising oil, rising yields and a stronger dollar are pressuring gold, silver and the precious-metal miners. x.com x.comÂ
Gold miners' record margins and sustained central-bank gold buying support the sector's bullish setup. Average AISC margins reached $3,076/oz in Q1, up 134% year over year, per the World Gold Council; gold remains above $4,100/oz. Central banks bought a record 289 tonnes in Q2. The watched bull-flag trigger for GDX is $89.76. x.comÂ
Newmont fell 10% on the week despite record Q1 free cash flow of $3.1B and a fresh $6B buyback, leaving it at a forward P/E of 9.58 on a $116B market cap. CIBC raised its target to $177 from $112 and Scotiabank to $152 from $114. Cadia is back to 80% capacity, with full normalization expected in Q3 2026. x.com x.comÂ
Oil's undervaluation relative to gold, which @TaviCosta says points to structurally higher natural resource prices, is a clear negative for gold miners. x.comÂ
Gold miners look like most of the damage is done: gold is down over $1,500 from its top and miners about 40%, with sentiment and positioning near capitulation. Gold's Daily Sentiment Index fell to 14% bullish, speculative open interest is below the late-2015 bottom, the miners' bullish percent index hit 0% and gold's RSI is the lowest since October 2023. Gold could still fall on Hormuz, dollar strength and seasonality, but Chinese buying, de-dollarization and miners' cash flows remain. x.comÂ
The gap between gold miners and the metal is the trade most are missing. Producers carry operating leverage, central banks haven't stopped buying, and the paper price doesn't set the physical demand curve. @OJRenick spots GDX calls outpacing puts 5:1 as gold tries to break its multi-month downtrend. The gap closes both ways. x.comÂ
Gold and precious-metals miners are at the start of a new bull market, judging by the crowds and packed meeting schedules at the 2026 Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek. buzzsprout.comÂ
Gold miners Agnico Eagle, B2Gold and Newmont are worth buying aggressively because, per Willem Middelkoop (@wmiddelkoop), gold mining shares are dirt cheap again compared with gold. x.comÂ
