Rising oil worsens inflation and puts Fed rate hikes back in focus, making non-yielding gold and silver less attractive. Investors are also selling metals to meet margin calls. An estimated $1.83 trillion in combined value was wiped out over recent sessions; both metals remain under pressure as long as oil keeps rising and rate-hike expectations stay high. x.com 

Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.com 

Gold miners have not yet priced in what record gold prices mean for the sector, and the window to get in is shrinking. Newmont beat Q1 profit estimates even though output fell, showing the gold price tailwind is covering operational shortfalls; earnings should rise further when production normalizes. The majors have pricing power they have not had in years and operating leverage is building, while most investors remain in tech. x.com  x.com 

Silver's supply shortfall should ultimately help drive its price higher. A commenter cites a projected 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Supply should remain tight in coming months, though negative trading and fear of further losses are driving investors to sell for now. x.com  x.com 

Domestic precious-metal miners are favored, because as gold moves into its next leg up, things will get rough in some places and some governments will get greedy. @CandidMacro adds energy supply issues at mines in Mali and probably Australia. Favorites are Coeur Mining, Hecla Mining, Endeavour Silver, Blackrock Silver and FGOVF. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Gold miners look like most of the damage is done: gold is down over $1,500 from its top and miners about 40%, with sentiment and positioning near capitulation. Gold's Daily Sentiment Index fell to 14% bullish, speculative open interest is below the late-2015 bottom, the miners' bullish percent index hit 0% and gold's RSI is the lowest since October 2023. Gold could still fall on Hormuz, dollar strength and seasonality, but Chinese buying, de-dollarization and miners' cash flows remain. x.com 

Gold now points toward a downside target, following the late-August exit signal laid out in the August 30 edition of Turning Points. x.com 

Oil's undervaluation relative to gold, which @TaviCosta says points to structurally higher natural resource prices, is a clear negative for gold miners. x.com 

Gold miners should do well if the Fed holds rates or the US dollar falls. A stronger bounce this week with a MACD pinch would be a new buy signal. x.com 

Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more