Francis Hunt
Trading Education, Hunt Volatility Funnel & Capital Preservation
Recognizing gold as money in a US balance-sheet revaluation would be bullish for sentiment, but would not materially move spot immediately. Marking gold from $42 to around $4,000 mainly books a profit. Sustaining $20,000 would require the US to buy at that level against global arbitrage, perhaps printing enough dollars to debase the currency substantially. That makes little sense while the US has been selling gold to China at falling prices. x.com
Gold and silver are setting up for a metals mania, with the bottom already put in back in July. Gold shows a bullish divergence and an engulfing candle poking into a real breakout, and markets will soon see a 25bps dovish hike as no different from holding rates. Silver has an inverse head-and-shoulders attempting a fresh breakout and is about to outpace the dollar for the first time since last year; the last such rotation saw silver surge 190%. The bear case is $80/oz. x.com x.com
Silver's supply shortfall should ultimately help drive its price higher. A commenter cites a projected 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Supply should remain tight in coming months, though negative trading and fear of further losses are driving investors to sell for now. x.com x.com
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more
Gold and silver are headed higher because Fed rate hikes cannot fix inflation. A further 100 bp of hikes might hurt the stock market and perhaps the economy, forcing a reversal, without solving inflation. x.com
Capital is rotating out of AI capex into areas it starved for two years. Health care, airlines, defense and metals are where the market wants to be for the six weeks to the December 9 Fed meeting; gold and silver are bought on every dip. Risk is still being taken elsewhere: if S&P futures hold 7,700, the rotation carries the index; if they lose it, this was a correction in disguise. x.com
Rising oil worsens inflation and puts Fed rate hikes back in focus, making non-yielding gold and silver less attractive. Investors are also selling metals to meet margin calls. An estimated $1.83 trillion in combined value was wiped out over recent sessions; both metals remain under pressure as long as oil keeps rising and rate-hike expectations stay high. x.com
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.com
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.com
Gold tends to perform poorly when liquidity contracts, while it performs best during recoveries. Gold looks likely to fall next year. x.com x.com
Gold is a secular long-term long, and its weakness should reverse once oil falls and pulls yields down. Oil now drives yields, with their correlation at a 35-year high, as high oil prices keep inflation expectations elevated. Gulf exports are normalizing, so oil should come down soon once the war ends, with yields following and gold recovering. x.com x.com