Feroce Research
Thematic Research, Technical/Macro/Fundamental Analysis & Quantitative Positioning
Gold and silver are setting up for a metals mania, with the bottom already put in back in July. Gold shows a bullish divergence and an engulfing candle poking into a real breakout, and markets will soon see a 25bps dovish hike as no different from holding rates. Silver has an inverse head-and-shoulders attempting a fresh breakout and is about to outpace the dollar for the first time since last year; the last such rotation saw silver surge 190%. The bear case is $80/oz. x.com x.comÂ
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Seasonality is unfavorable for gold over the next few weeks, adding to the intermediate downside case. Based on 30-50 years of data, this is not one of the preferred 70% zones and seasonality is only a confluence, never a standalone signal. Losing the $3,955 low opens a normal backtest toward $3,450; gold tends to bottom in mid-November and mid-March. A pullback to the $3,000 area, if it occurs, would be a long-term buying opportunity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Silver's supply shortfall should ultimately help drive its price higher. A commenter cites a projected 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Supply should remain tight in coming months, though negative trading and fear of further losses are driving investors to sell for now. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Gold now points toward a downside target, following the late-August exit signal laid out in the August 30 edition of Turning Points. x.comÂ
Silver is the next leg of the falling-value-of-money trade and is about to rip, because its freely tradable market has become so thin that a handful of buyers can move it violently. Its borrowing cost spiked from under 1% to nearly 40% in a week. What thinned it isn't reversing: the US Treasury stockpile hit zero in 2002, photography demand has already shrunk, and byproduct mining can't respond. Against the money supply, gold is back to 42% of its 1980 level but silver only 11%. x.comÂ
Gold remains bullish because its correction and investor washout fit the expected cycle reset before the next major move. After two strong years, the projected cycle low is approaching, making the shakeout a setup within gold's multi-year cycle rather than a break in the long-term trend. x.com x.comÂ
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ
Silver can stabilize around its previous cycle all-time high, but the long-term bull case is limited because its scarcity is nowhere near that of gold or bitcoin. x.comÂ
