George Noble
Investment Writer, Former Fund Manager at Fidelity, Former Assistant to Peter Lynch
Silver is the next leg of the falling-value-of-money trade and is about to rip, because its freely tradable market has become so thin that a handful of buyers can move it violently. Its borrowing cost spiked from under 1% to nearly 40% in a week. What thinned it isn't reversing: the US Treasury stockpile hit zero in 2002, photography demand has already shrunk, and byproduct mining can't respond. Against the money supply, gold is back to 42% of its 1980 level but silver only 11%. x.comÂ
Silver's supply shortfall should ultimately help drive its price higher. A commenter cites a projected 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Supply should remain tight in coming months, though negative trading and fear of further losses are driving investors to sell for now. x.com x.comÂ
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Rising oil worsens inflation and puts Fed rate hikes back in focus, making non-yielding gold and silver less attractive. Investors are also selling metals to meet margin calls. An estimated $1.83 trillion in combined value was wiped out over recent sessions; both metals remain under pressure as long as oil keeps rising and rate-hike expectations stay high. x.comÂ
Central-bank stockpiling adds demand for gold amid market weakness. WatcherGuru, citing Fortune, reports central banks buying four times more gold than usual and moving it out of the US. Similar silver buying is suspected, not established; both metals remain favored. x.comÂ
Silver can stabilize around its previous cycle all-time high, but the long-term bull case is limited because its scarcity is nowhere near that of gold or bitcoin. x.comÂ
Silver will dump along with gold, stocks, bonds and bitcoin when markets open Monday, as macro stresses hit all at once. The Fed just confirmed rate hikes are back on the table, Iran violated the ceasefire as the US reportedly struck it (per Kalshi), Japan and China are cutting Treasury exposure, and the AI bubble is starting to collapse. Monday could be the worst day of 2026. In the worst case, oil goes parabolic, yields spike and liquidity vanishes. x.comÂ
Gold and silver are setting up for a metals mania, with the bottom already put in back in July. Gold shows a bullish divergence and an engulfing candle poking into a real breakout, and markets will soon see a 25bps dovish hike as no different from holding rates. Silver has an inverse head-and-shoulders attempting a fresh breakout and is about to outpace the dollar for the first time since last year; the last such rotation saw silver surge 190%. The bear case is $80/oz. x.com x.comÂ
Silver's above-ground buffer is rapidly vanishing amid AI demand and prolonged deficits. Vera Rubin uses over 60% more silver than Blackwell, and AI consumes silver including reclaimed supply. 2027 will be the seventh consecutive deficit year, while a new mine takes about ten years from scratch to first pour. An inflection in silver will come. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply makes it preferable to oil, gold and silver, whose higher prices encourage more production. Sell those three commodities and buy Bitcoin. A gold-normalized historical scarcity-resistance ranking scores silver 83.6 and WTI oil 72.1 against gold's 100; it tracks historical loss of purchasing power to Bitcoin, not physical scarcity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Silver's supply cannot keep up with demand. It has run a structural deficit every year since 2021, with demand exceeding supply by 100-250 million ounces annually. Industrial demand hit a fourth straight record of 680.5 million ounces in 2024, up 39% from 2016, driven by solar panels, EVs and AI hardware. About 70% of silver is mined as a byproduct of copper and zinc, so supply cannot simply respond; the 2021-2025 deficit totals about 796 million ounces, roughly 25% of a year's mine output. … Show more
