Silver is setting up for a violent dump, nearer the end of its run than the beginning. After a 140%+ rise in 2026, with gold moving first and "silver is still cheap" everywhere, the setup echoes 2011, when silver ran from $18 to $49 and collapsed once leverage peaked and liquidity vanished. Real deficits and industrial demand attract more leverage rather than prevent a crash. In a thin, derivatives-driven market, crowded positioning can cascade into forced selling, though it may rise first. … Show more

Silver's predicted third sell-off is well advanced, and an AI-induced bust could drag it lower first, though there is a small chance it is near its last local low. Longer term, the falling wedge will likely resolve as an upside continuation pattern. @DonDurrett expects sub-$60 silver and sub-$4,000 gold as Chinese appetite fades, with the correction likely not over. x.com  x.com 

Silver's supply shortfall should ultimately help drive its price higher. A commenter cites a projected 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Supply should remain tight in coming months, though negative trading and fear of further losses are driving investors to sell for now. x.com  x.com 

Silver's 30% rally off its lows was likely the bulk of the move in this 20-week cycle, and metals should weaken as the dollar index rallies off its 80-day cycle low toward 100. Silver hit the $72 target and fell 6.8% in three hours. Cycles point to a 40-day low in early September, a bounce, then a 20-week low around October, with $48-49 the ideal fall target. September is the seasonal peak and October to mid-November is typically bearish; if the dollar regains 100, metals will struggle. x.com  … Show more

A rising USD/CNH is the strongest threat to US stocks because it would spread China's deflationary spiral to the US and the AI/semiconductor bubble. It matters more than the dollar, yields or oil, if USD/CNH first bottoms at its monthly 200-period average. x.com 

Silver is the next leg of the falling-value-of-money trade and is about to rip, because its freely tradable market has become so thin that a handful of buyers can move it violently. Its borrowing cost spiked from under 1% to nearly 40% in a week. What thinned it isn't reversing: the US Treasury stockpile hit zero in 2002, photography demand has already shrunk, and byproduct mining can't respond. Against the money supply, gold is back to 42% of its 1980 level but silver only 11%. x.com 

The US government is running out of willing lenders, so long-dated Treasuries are being absorbed only at higher yields. Foreign private demand has dropped sharply while deficits remain elevated, and the market is taking the debt only at higher yields and through heavier short-term issuance. Traditional sources of capital are drying up, and at some point the bill always comes due. x.com 

Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.com 

Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields face more upward pressure than in the 1990s, a common comparison. Then, yields were high but falling from the early-1980s Volcker peak, and the US was the sole superpower. Now yields are turning up from their 2020 low, while the Iran war has driven oil-led inflation and exposed weaker US military dominance, denting confidence in Treasuries. Foreigners bought over $940 billion of US stocks in a year while selling Treasuries. Pressure persists until macro tensions ease. … Show more