Andy Heilman
Principal Owner of MH & Associates
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rising oil worsens inflation and puts Fed rate hikes back in focus, making non-yielding gold and silver less attractive. Investors are also selling metals to meet margin calls. An estimated $1.83 trillion in combined value was wiped out over recent sessions; both metals remain under pressure as long as oil keeps rising and rate-hike expectations stay high. x.comÂ
Gold's dip on rate-driven opportunity costs is a buying opportunity, because higher rates force faster money-supply growth. The system is designed that way, since letting defaults ripple through it is politically unfeasible, and that pressure will intensify until the great monetary reset. x.comÂ
Gold and silver are setting up for a metals mania, with the bottom already put in back in July. Gold shows a bullish divergence and an engulfing candle poking into a real breakout, and markets will soon see a 25bps dovish hike as no different from holding rates. Silver has an inverse head-and-shoulders attempting a fresh breakout and is about to outpace the dollar for the first time since last year; the last such rotation saw silver surge 190%. The bear case is $80/oz. x.com x.comÂ
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more
China's physical buying near $4,000 and a Fed lagging inflation support gold despite rising rates. Per Bloomberg, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract traded roughly 430 tons last week, its busiest week since April; buyers pay in full and take delivery. Gold historically does very well when rates rise while the Fed is behind the curve, as it is now. Warsh is no Volcker, and heavy US debt would constrain him even if he were. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Capital is rotating out of AI capex into areas it starved for two years. Health care, airlines, defense and metals are where the market wants to be for the six weeks to the December 9 Fed meeting; gold and silver are bought on every dip. Risk is still being taken elsewhere: if S&P futures hold 7,700, the rotation carries the index; if they lose it, this was a correction in disguise. x.comÂ
Gold is under pressure as Fed rate-hike expectations rise: after Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, markets price a 57% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in September, up from 35%, and gold fell below $4,445 an ounce. x.comÂ
Gold should benefit as markets are overpricing Fed hikes and economic overheating at the front end of the curve. Upcoming data should prove that pricing wrong, which would favor gold. x.comÂ