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Korean Growth & Space Investor, RKLB/TSLA/PLTR/SPCX
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix face a buyer backlash over memory pricing in a cyclical business. Elon Musk called Micron reasonable about future prices and other suppliers extortionate, warning customers would remember; the remarks seem aimed at Samsung and SK hynix. Micron appears to be focusing on long-term contracts. x.com x.com x.com
Memory chipmakers need rising big-tech capex to coincide with customers' revenue surprises and recovering free cash flow before their next rerating. Memory firms' own earnings look good, but their customers have spent most of their cash and are now borrowing to fund spending. Guidance could signal a turn before free cash flow actually recovers; both conditions must come together. x.com x.com x.com x.com
SK hynix and other Korean memory makers' aggressive price hikes invite customers to optimize memory use, undermining the case for 90% margins despite a long-term shortage. Memory is the only layer raising cost per token. Elon Musk described Micron's future pricing as reasonable and other suppliers' as extortionate, warning that today's customers would not forget; exorbitant long-term contracts compound that risk. x.com x.com
Memory makers' long-term agreements cannot protect pricing when buyers regain leverage. The market underestimates downside even before a price collapse; SK hynix's agreements price within market-linked ranges, per @jukan05. The agreements will be ripped apart when the market turns to buyers, at the latest when China ramps. SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk and Kioxia are exposed. x.com
Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.com
Elon Musk's view that Micron's reasonable future memory pricing can build long-term customer loyalty supports going long. Musk says other suppliers have been extortionate, a contrast customers will not forget. x.com
Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.com
Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.com
Samsung Electronics' HBM4 pricing looks set to lead the memory Big Three, helping make next year's earnings phenomenal. Samsung memory EVP Jaejune Kim said next year's HBM supply is sold out at target prices, with more customer requests coming. Korean media had reported quotes in the mid-to-high $4/Gb range; Nvidia appears to have accepted Samsung's asking price. Samsung-equipped Rubin variants should sell as separate premium-priced SKUs against SK hynix or Micron versions. x.com
Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix look very bullish because Samsung says the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. x.com
SK hynix's surging earnings challenge the idea that commodity memory profits are about to vanish. The attached report says third-quarter operating profit rose more than sevenfold and its operating margin reached 80%; analysts quoted there expect the earnings climb to continue at least through next year. Micron and Samsung are named alongside SK hynix. x.com
Tight memory-chip supply through 2030 is good for Micron. SK hynix expects the shortage to last that long and reports a 632% profit jump. x.com
