Archer Aviation could become a 'Mini Monster' if its planned Boeing deal adds a defense business to help finance Midnight. Insitu has over $200M in annual revenue and is profitable per Boeing, but cash flow and synergies are unproven. At roughly $2.4B pro forma enterprise value before further burn, the next 12 to 24 months must show a closed deal, audited margins, certification progress and defense production awards. Delays or faster dilution could break the case. x.com 

Archer Aviation is becoming much more than a single-catalyst air-taxi bet. Beyond its lead in FAA certification and Midnight nearing commercialization, it now has Wisk's autonomous-flight technology, Insitu's defense revenue and customers, SkyGrid's airspace-management platform, its ZEE aviation AI model, Halo/Thunder and the Anduril relationship, and $1.6B of liquidity. @matthewl_cn would weight the Insitu/Anduril pillar, noting the rest is pre-revenue and burn across eight bets adds up. x.com  … Show more

Archer Aviation's CEO looks like a pump-and-dump type who cannot be trusted. That would matter less if the product worked, but Archer has still failed to show a solid working product. x.com  x.com 

Archer Aviation looks mispriced after catalysts that cement its eVTOL leadership. It partnered with defense firm Anduril on Thunder, an autonomous VTOL for defense and commercial markets, and joined an alliance with the FAA and five other countries to streamline eVTOL certification. Over $1.7B in cash puts it well ahead of anticipated commercial launches and removes near-term funding risk. Holding its moving averages and breaking short-term resistance would leave upside wide open. x.com  x.com 

Archer Aviation's purchase of Wisk Aero, SkyGrid and Insitu from Boeing could turn it from an eVTOL company into a broader aerospace and defense AI platform, a shift the market may not fully price yet. Insitu alone brings over $200M in annual revenue and 2 million autonomous flight hours; Wisk's autonomy technology could feed Halo and Thunder, and SkyGrid the ZEE AI model. Boeing is also taking a stake in Archer and becoming a strategic partner. x.com 

Archer Aviation looks expensive at $5.22, about 122% above a fair value of $1.85 to $2.35 derived from reported earnings and revenue estimates. It carries a $4.0B market cap with forward EPS of -$0.81. x.com 

Applied Aerospace & Defense's record $1.13B backlog and sole-supplier role on 87% of its business make it much stronger than its chart looks. Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 38.5%, and customers include SpaceX and Anduril. Jefferies named it one of its top small/mid-cap cyclical ideas with a Buy rating and $20 target, more than 80% above Wednesday's close. The falling-wedge trigger is $11.54. x.com 

Archer is building out its Los Angeles air-taxi network ahead of the LA28 Olympics, where it is the Official Air Taxi Provider. With AEG it is developing downtown LA's first vertiport at L.A. LIVE, where Archer will be the exclusive air taxi provider, joining SoFi Stadium, USC, Hollywood Burbank and its Hawthorne Airport hub. Feasibility work is done. This is a site partnership, not a revenue contract, and Midnight is in the final phase of FAA type certification, so patience on timing is needed. … Show more

Archer Aviation's business model is selling dreams, and basic logic says it will not end well. Elon Musk has said its approach will not work, its CEO comes across as a hype man, and a $5B valuation is hard to justify. Investors should trust that logic over spreadsheet models, CEOs promoting their own stock and analysts whose firms may be paid by the companies they cover. x.com 

Archer Aviation's reversal is drawing volume, with continuation above 6.55, and its certification progress supports the move. It holds three key operational certificates: Part 135 air carrier (June 2024), Part 145 repair station (February 2024) and Part 141 for its pilot training academy (February 2025). Midnight, its piloted four-passenger eVTOL air taxi, is in the means-of-compliance and test and validation phase of type certification. x.com