Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
Archer Aviation's business model is selling dreams, and basic logic says it will not end well. Elon Musk has said its approach will not work, its CEO comes across as a hype man, and a $5B valuation is hard to justify. Investors should trust that logic over spreadsheet models, CEOs promoting their own stock and analysts whose firms may be paid by the companies they cover. x.comÂ
Archer Aviation looks expensive at $5.22, about 122% above a fair value of $1.85 to $2.35 derived from reported earnings and revenue estimates. It carries a $4.0B market cap with forward EPS of -$0.81. x.comÂ
Archer Aviation looks mispriced after catalysts that cement its eVTOL leadership. It partnered with defense firm Anduril on Thunder, an autonomous VTOL for defense and commercial markets, and joined an alliance with the FAA and five other countries to streamline eVTOL certification. Over $1.7B in cash puts it well ahead of anticipated commercial launches and removes near-term funding risk. Holding its moving averages and breaking short-term resistance would leave upside wide open. x.com x.comÂ
Joby Aviation's and Archer Aviation's commercial payoff is still way, way out, and their market caps are already high. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings and Archer Aviation are dead money because endless dilution has outpaced their hot stories. Ondas shareholders haven't made a buck all year as dilution inflates its market cap, and a $460M backlog, even if fully realized, is thin against a roughly $6B market cap. Archer went the same way, climbing on a red-hot story until billions in dilution left enthusiasm unable to keep pace. The biggest cost is opportunity cost in one of the hottest markets of a lifetime. x.com x.comÂ
Archer Aviation could become a 'Mini Monster' if its planned Boeing deal adds a defense business to help finance Midnight. Insitu has over $200M in annual revenue and is profitable per Boeing, but cash flow and synergies are unproven. At roughly $2.4B pro forma enterprise value before further burn, the next 12 to 24 months must show a closed deal, audited margins, certification progress and defense production awards. Delays or faster dilution could break the case. x.comÂ
EHang's stock won't stop dropping anytime soon because abysmal execution and terrible communication outweigh its promising technology. Its FY2025 accounting revision lowered earnings, Q1 2026 results disappointed, and promised March commercial operations came with no follow-up updates. A growth company buying back shares just to prop up the price has the wrong priorities. Only signs of improvement would change this view. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation needs too much time and capex to make its business happen, so it is better to wait until it has its first customer. A post the author replies to agrees the technology is real but says monetization and legality remain the question. x.comÂ
Archer Aviation is increasingly one of the best bargains at a $3.5B market cap after releasing a dual-use autonomous hybrid-electric VTOL aircraft developed with Anduril. Anduril is also showcasing its Thunder attack aircraft built with Archer. The open question is how much defense revenue Archer captures, given its apparent focus on the commercial side. x.com x.comÂ
Archer Aviation is becoming much more than a single-catalyst air-taxi bet. Beyond its lead in FAA certification and Midnight nearing commercialization, it now has Wisk's autonomous-flight technology, Insitu's defense revenue and customers, SkyGrid's airspace-management platform, its ZEE aviation AI model, Halo/Thunder and the Anduril relationship, and $1.6B of liquidity. @matthewl_cn would weight the Insitu/Anduril pillar, noting the rest is pre-revenue and burn across eight bets adds up. x.com … Show more