RocketMan
Space Investor, Rocket Lab Focus
Archer Aviation's CEO looks like a pump-and-dump type who cannot be trusted. That would matter less if the product worked, but Archer has still failed to show a solid working product. x.com x.comÂ
Joby Aviation needs too much time and capex to make its business happen, so it is better to wait until it has its first customer. A post the author replies to agrees the technology is real but says monetization and legality remain the question. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation has a potential rebound catalyst in its targeted launch of commercial service in Dubai by the end of 2026. It remains a legitimate company and an eVTOL leader, making it a candidate for the rebound in beaten-down names. x.comÂ
Archer Aviation's business model is selling dreams, and basic logic says it will not end well. Elon Musk has said its approach will not work, its CEO comes across as a hype man, and a $5B valuation is hard to justify. Investors should trust that logic over spreadsheet models, CEOs promoting their own stock and analysts whose firms may be paid by the companies they cover. x.comÂ
Archer Aviation looks expensive at $5.22, about 122% above a fair value of $1.85 to $2.35 derived from reported earnings and revenue estimates. It carries a $4.0B market cap with forward EPS of -$0.81. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation remains a bullish long-term story, but repeated capital raises and an FAA approval path that looks more protracted than expected have slowed its payoff. The stock has not benefited as much as its real progress suggested it should, so Cerebras offers more upside and growth on the same timeline. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation's stock won't rise until the company stops selling shares at the lows, and it just filed a $700M at-the-market offering. Its Resonant Sciences acquisition also requires a $450M cash payment when it closes in early 2027. x.comÂ
Merlin is a 100x-or-bankrupt opportunity, too binary to invest in personally despite liking Merlin and Matt. Shield AI and Anduril are focused on defense right now, but it makes sense for them to go after the commercial sector eventually with proven tech, and more competitors are targeting cargo. The stock should rebound once high-beta names come back into favor. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation is priced as if it had no passenger revenue, though it is the only eVTOL company with any. It is building a vertical-takeoff electric air taxi and already owns Blade, an air taxi business flying paying passengers. The whole eVTOL sector sold off together this year, leaving Joby near $6 with about a $6 billion market cap, while the Street's highest target is $18, nearly 3x, before commercial eVTOL service even launches. It could 10x by 2030. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation's mid-term downtrend remains intact on the weekly chart. Most key momentum bars have now been breached to the downside, consistent with a steady decline in whale accumulation, and the stock keeps making lower highs and lower lows. x.comÂ