DVB
Deep-Value Investor, Ex-Tech Executive, Agentic Equity Research Builder
Joby Aviation's and Archer Aviation's commercial payoff is still way, way out, and their market caps are already high. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation's stock won't rise until the company stops selling shares at the lows, and it just filed a $700M at-the-market offering. Its Resonant Sciences acquisition also requires a $450M cash payment when it closes in early 2027. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation has a potential rebound catalyst in its targeted launch of commercial service in Dubai by the end of 2026. It remains a legitimate company and an eVTOL leader, making it a candidate for the rebound in beaten-down names. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation's mid-term downtrend remains intact on the weekly chart. Most key momentum bars have now been breached to the downside, consistent with a steady decline in whale accumulation, and the stock keeps making lower highs and lower lows. x.comÂ
Archer Aviation's CEO looks like a pump-and-dump type who cannot be trusted. That would matter less if the product worked, but Archer has still failed to show a solid working product. x.com x.comÂ
Joby Aviation's fundamental story is intact, a long-term eVTOL play that is still in the first inning. It raised substantial capital during the hype, leaving it as well capitalized as ever, and last month used that cash to buy a defense company for $500M. Scaled commercialization isn't expected until the early 2030s at best, with smaller rollouts next year, so the chart may keep bleeding before signs of life make it worth buying again. x.com x.comÂ
Aeluma's technology is ready but meaningful revenue is still far off, so it is a wait-and-see stock until a signed purchase order arrives. Q3 revenue of $1.2M missed the $1.35M consensus and FY2026 guidance narrowed to $4.2-4.6M, blamed on government contract delays. It grows quantum-dot lasers on 200mm silicon with MOCVD and has moved production to Tower Semiconductor, but H2 2026 is for sampling and yields; problems in the first qualification could add long delays. x.com x.comÂ
Joby looks like one of the more overlooked growth opportunities because the market still values it as an air-taxi certification bet, not a broader aviation platform. Certification could unlock passenger routes, aircraft sales and defense variants; Toyota aids manufacturing, Blade brings routes and Resonant adds defense revenue. But $750M-$800M annual cash burn and dilution threaten per-share upside; certification in 2027 and production of dozens of aircraft annually remain conditional. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation is priced as if it had no passenger revenue, though it is the only eVTOL company with any. It is building a vertical-takeoff electric air taxi and already owns Blade, an air taxi business flying paying passengers. The whole eVTOL sector sold off together this year, leaving Joby near $6 with about a $6 billion market cap, while the Street's highest target is $18, nearly 3x, before commercial eVTOL service even launches. It could 10x by 2030. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation remains a bullish long-term story, but repeated capital raises and an FAA approval path that looks more protracted than expected have slowed its payoff. The stock has not benefited as much as its real progress suggested it should, so Cerebras offers more upside and growth on the same timeline. x.comÂ