Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Joby Aviation's fundamental story is intact, a long-term eVTOL play that is still in the first inning. It raised substantial capital during the hype, leaving it as well capitalized as ever, and last month used that cash to buy a defense company for $500M. Scaled commercialization isn't expected until the early 2030s at best, with smaller rollouts next year, so the chart may keep bleeding before signs of life make it worth buying again. x.com x.comÂ
Joby's Blade unit shows how fast the gap between air and road travel is closing: an Uber to the Hamptons has risen from $200 to about $600 and takes 3-5 hours, while a Blade helicopter has fallen from $2,000-plus to $965 for about 30 minutes. Even with self-driving cars, eVTOLs flying at 200mph, free of roads and landing on rooftops, keep an enormous advantage as a luxury option with clear value. This is a long-dated investment, to be judged in the early 2030s. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Joby Aviation has a potential rebound catalyst in its targeted launch of commercial service in Dubai by the end of 2026. It remains a legitimate company and an eVTOL leader, making it a candidate for the rebound in beaten-down names. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation is priced as if it had no passenger revenue, though it is the only eVTOL company with any. It is building a vertical-takeoff electric air taxi and already owns Blade, an air taxi business flying paying passengers. The whole eVTOL sector sold off together this year, leaving Joby near $6 with about a $6 billion market cap, while the Street's highest target is $18, nearly 3x, before commercial eVTOL service even launches. It could 10x by 2030. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation needs too much time and capex to make its business happen, so it is better to wait until it has its first customer. A post the author replies to agrees the technology is real but says monetization and legality remain the question. x.comÂ
Joby looks like one of the more overlooked growth opportunities because the market still values it as an air-taxi certification bet, not a broader aviation platform. Certification could unlock passenger routes, aircraft sales and defense variants; Toyota aids manufacturing, Blade brings routes and Resonant adds defense revenue. But $750M-$800M annual cash burn and dilution threaten per-share upside; certification in 2027 and production of dozens of aircraft annually remain conditional. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation remains a bullish long-term story, but repeated capital raises and an FAA approval path that looks more protracted than expected have slowed its payoff. The stock has not benefited as much as its real progress suggested it should, so Cerebras offers more upside and growth on the same timeline. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation's stock won't rise until the company stops selling shares at the lows, and it just filed a $700M at-the-market offering. Its Resonant Sciences acquisition also requires a $450M cash payment when it closes in early 2027. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation's pole position in flying cars is worth more than $7 billion in enterprise value. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation is nearing commercial inflection with a balance sheet that can carry it through launch without emergency dilution. FAA type certification is advancing, Manhattan-JFK demonstration flights have flown, and Delta, Toyota, Blade's routes and Metropolis vertiports back the rollout, with over $1B in cash and minimal debt. Archer's Section 337 patent case is the overhang, but 80%+ of ITC cases settle and launch can proceed in parallel. Bull case $25-35, bear case $5-7, over 2-3 years. … Show more
Joby Aviation's and Archer Aviation's commercial payoff is still way, way out, and their market caps are already high. x.comÂ
Joby Aviation, down about 65%, is a buying opportunity with FAA clearance expected soon and military work ahead. x.comÂ
