Joby Aviation remains a bullish long-term story, but repeated capital raises and an FAA approval path that looks more protracted than expected have slowed its payoff. The stock has not benefited as much as its real progress suggested it should, so Cerebras offers more upside and growth on the same timeline. x.com 

Joby Aviation's fundamental story is intact, a long-term eVTOL play that is still in the first inning. It raised substantial capital during the hype, leaving it as well capitalized as ever, and last month used that cash to buy a defense company for $500M. Scaled commercialization isn't expected until the early 2030s at best, with smaller rollouts next year, so the chart may keep bleeding before signs of life make it worth buying again. x.com  x.com 

Joby Aviation's stock won't rise until the company stops selling shares at the lows, and it just filed a $700M at-the-market offering. Its Resonant Sciences acquisition also requires a $450M cash payment when it closes in early 2027. x.com 

Joby Aviation has a potential rebound catalyst in its targeted launch of commercial service in Dubai by the end of 2026. It remains a legitimate company and an eVTOL leader, making it a candidate for the rebound in beaten-down names. x.com 

Joby looks like one of the more overlooked growth opportunities because the market still values it as an air-taxi certification bet, not a broader aviation platform. Certification could unlock passenger routes, aircraft sales and defense variants; Toyota aids manufacturing, Blade brings routes and Resonant adds defense revenue. But $750M-$800M annual cash burn and dilution threaten per-share upside; certification in 2027 and production of dozens of aircraft annually remain conditional. x.com 

Joby Aviation needs too much time and capex to make its business happen, so it is better to wait until it has its first customer. A post the author replies to agrees the technology is real but says monetization and legality remain the question. x.com 

Joby Aviation insiders are buying, and insiders sell for many reasons but buy for only one. x.com 

Drone market growth to $100 billion by 2030, per Goldman Sachs, should lift five companies. Amazon has made over 100,000 Prime Air drone deliveries in US test markets. Kratos builds pilotless combat jets like the XQ-58 Valkyrie, with a $2 billion backlog and $15 billion pipeline. Ambarella's AI vision chips let drones see in real time. Leonardo DRS, about 80% Pentagon-funded, makes radar that downs enemy drones. Joby already earns from Blade's air taxis while awaiting FAA approval. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Joby Aviation's and Archer Aviation's commercial payoff is still way, way out, and their market caps are already high. x.com 

Joby Aviation's pole position in flying cars is worth more than $7 billion in enterprise value. x.com