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Casey's General Stores is not a buy despite its largest drawdown since 2008, because its valuation had become historically stretched beforehand. A 33.6% fall from highs, per Fiscal.ai, looks like a deal only until that prior valuation is considered. There is no interest in adding at current levels, and no fear of missing out if the stock does not go lower. x.comÂ
Hyped growth stocks can be poor investments even when their businesses grow, because valuations already assume they will become exceptional. Retail buyers often arrive after the promise is widely recognized, before tougher competition separates lasting winners from the rest. Eight of the nine previously warned-about stocks have fallen, though Oscar Health has gained. x.comÂ
Casey's General Stores is a quiet compounder built on roughly 2,900 local monopolies in rural Midwest towns too small for rivals, where fuel draws traffic and fresh pizza earns the profit. About half its stores sit in towns under 5,000 people, and it is the fifth-largest US pizza chain. Inside margins run 41-42%, FY2025 revenue was $15.9 billion, and recent EPS grew 14-20%. It plans about 500 more locations over three years and has raised its dividend for 25 straight years. x.comÂ
Casey's General Stores is a buy on its 15% dip because its moat, a top-five pizza chain inside a convenience store, will outlast fading peak fuel margins. It beat EPS by a wide margin, and 3.2% inside comps hide a 7.7% two-year stack and a 42.2% inside margin. Management reaffirmed 2-5% inside comps, 8-10% EBITDA growth and 120+ new stores, with a three-year plan for 400 stores and $2B of FCF after over-delivering last time. The Street sees $800-$840 versus about $622 now. x.comÂ
Casey's General Stores is getting interesting after a 15% drop, with store growth and owned real estate supporting value, though 25x earnings would be the preferred entry. It targets 120 new stores in FY27, and remodeled CEFCO sites see about 30% prepared food and dispensed beverage lifts. It owns 2,703 of its 2,944 stores, worth roughly $6.8B at $2.5M each, about 25-35% of its equity value, offering sale-leaseback optionality. x.com x.com x.comÂ
