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Special Situations & Volatility Investor, Wall Street Background
Hyped growth stocks can be poor investments even when their businesses grow, because valuations already assume they will become exceptional. Retail buyers often arrive after the promise is widely recognized, before tougher competition separates lasting winners from the rest. Eight of the nine previously warned-about stocks have fallen, though Oscar Health has gained. x.com
Oscar Health looks too extended after its big move and should pull back around earnings in the next few days; it is not a tech stock with a niche product capable of parabolic moves. x.com
Ouster, Applied Optoelectronics, Ondas, AST SpaceMobile, IREN and Oklo are statistically more likely to lose money long term if bought today. Most unprofitable retail favorites end up with horrendous charts years later, and survivorship bias is far worse among them, as the 2021 vintage shows. Big winners often come from unglamorous names like Marathon Petroleum, up over 20x in six years. Applied Optoelectronics may work on real demand, but its CEO has failed for 30 years. Keep such bets small. … Show more
Company success largely depends on capable management, and leaders obsessed with realizing their vision make failure extremely difficult. This is one of the main reasons for adding Zeta Global, Oscar Health, Hims & Hers, Aduro, AST SpaceMobile, SoFi, Alibaba, AMD, Nvidia, Airbnb and Dell, but not Tesla or Robinhood. x.com
US technology shares are way overvalued for realistic growth expectations. Their decline is a repricing toward more reasonable expectations, not the Black Monday-style crash some over-leveraged tech holders predict. x.com x.com
Hims & Hers is not a $100 stock yet, because growth is slowing and there is no new driver on the scale of GLP-1. Customer acquisition and conversion are slowing and average spend per user is declining, which quarter-over-quarter figures show better than the 40%+ year-over-year narrative. Guidance was narrowed and comparisons get harder. Investing on past strong growth is looking backward. Hims is a great company, but the stock will take time to reach new highs. x.com
These twelve stocks could dominate the next era by meeting infrastructure and consumer demand. TSMC makes AI chips; Palo Alto Networks secures cloud; GE Aerospace earns engine-service revenue; IREN builds AI cloud; Broadcom supplies chips and networking; Intuitive Surgical sells surgical robots. Strategy offers bitcoin exposure; e.l.f. Beauty serves Gen Z; Robinhood expands finance; The Trade Desk serves advertisers; Walmart adds ads and memberships; Vistra powers AI data centers. x.com x.com … Show more
Stocks trading at 20 times sales or more, including Lumentum, Nebius, AMD, Palantir, AppLovin and Strategy, are at risk going into 2027. Only 13 Nasdaq companies remain at that level, and far more sit in the Russell 2000, where AI high flyers hide among biotech names. x.com
Hims & Hers' latest earnings show a deteriorating business, and hype is not worth much when that happens. x.com x.com
Deep drawdowns and extreme pessimism are making the long-term risk/reward more attractive for AI-infrastructure names such as Cipher Mining, CoreWeave, Eos Energy, Galaxy Digital, IREN Limited and T1 Energy. After 50-90% drawdowns, many trade at bear-market discounts and near major support, making downside easier to define. This depends on believing their long-term fundamentals and growth; not every name will be a winner. x.com x.com
These developed-market stocks still trade at extreme multiples even after three years of expected earnings growth, so the market is pricing in perfection. On 2028 forward earnings, Rocket Lab trades at 524 times, Nebius at 282, SoftBank at 251, Tesla at 122, Strategy at 95, Cloudflare at 89, Warner Bros. Discovery at 86, Arm and Takeda at 72, and CrowdStrike at 67. x.com
