Convequity
AI Value-Chain & Enterprise Technology Research
Corning is a structural loser from orbital AI data centers, because compute migrating from fiber-intensive terrestrial data centers to zero-fiber orbital ones reduces fiber demand. In vacuum, satellites link by free-space lasers rather than fiber, so Corning's hyperscale data center fiber business faces a long-term headwind. It is not a short, since 5G and fiber-to-the-home provide other drivers, but the exponential AI-fiber narrative weakens materially. x.comÂ
Sivers is less exposed to tighter AI financing because its 700M SEK raise funds a buildout largely reliant on external foundries. It is qualifying with Ayar, Jabil, GlobalFoundries and O-Net for potential tier-one hyperscaler pluggable, CPO and NPO deployments. Higher rates may strain neoclouds needing billions for GPUs, but optical content and aggregate demand should still rise even if hyperscaler AI capex falls, especially as new players start qualification. x.comÂ
Harmonic gains pricing power as fiber becomes structurally scarce, because it sits at the platform layer powering fiber and cable networks. The US has 159.6 million fiber miles but needs 372.9 million by 2029, and North American demand grows 22-25% a year while supply expands 12-19%. Fiber prices are up about 70% from the 2021 trough, AI data centers need about 36x more fiber than CPU racks, and data centers may be 30% of global demand by 2027. That makes an asymmetric setup. x.comÂ
Corning is essential to AI clusters because there is no AI without fiber, and its 2026 output is sold out with Meta and Amazon locked in. The stock has been noisy lately, with heavy volume at $194, and is compressing into earnings. x.comÂ
Corning's $2B at-the-market facility with Goldman Sachs is an option to sell stock, not a raise, so Friday's after-hours drop priced dilution that may never happen. The 8-K says sales may be limited, depend on market conditions and capital needs, and fund general corporate purposes with no named project. Notably, Corning arranged it while its new revenue stream has not started; its CEO said scale-up and photonics are not yet in results. The next 10-Q will show whether the share count moves. … Show more
Corning has an entrenched moat and remains a decent business, but holding off on buying it has been vindicated by the stock's recent drop. Unlike hot AI stocks whose position in five years is uncertain, it is not going anywhere. @EricJhonsa notes that at 32x 2027 EPS, with estimates likely too low, it is no longer crazy but not cheap, with smartphones and TVs his main concerns. x.com x.comÂ
Corning's optics business looks ready for a comeback as its fiber and high-density optical connectivity move data across massive AI GPU clusters. Optical sales rose 32% year over year to $2.07 billion, EPS is expected to more than triple by 2028, and the business is backed by major AI infrastructure deals with NVIDIA, Meta and Amazon. x.comÂ
Corning is the wrong instrument for glass substrates, the material set to replace organic substrates in AI chip packaging. Corning, AGC and Schott control about 90% of semiconductor-grade glass, and Corning works with TSMC with CHIPS Act funding. But substrates are a small part of a conglomerate whose growth comes mainly from AI optical fiber, trading at 90x earnings. The option value materializes in 2027-28; 2026 is for qualification, with yields at 75-85% and costs 2-3x organic. x.comÂ
Coherent is a structural bet on the data center shift from chips to connectivity, where optical components are now the bottleneck. Hyperscaler capex is forecast up 36% in 2026, and AI infrastructure spending is strategic necessity that won't be deferred in a recession. Nvidia's $2 billion investment locks in optical supply and gives Coherent revenue visibility through the decade. Its S&P 500 inclusion comes while the market prices a recession, setting up a repricing over the next 12 months. … Show more
Prepaid fiber orders make 2027-28 demand a stronger signal than capex plans. Corning reports $639M in net customer deposits in the first nine months and expects data-center interconnect to beat its former $1B-by-2030 target on timing and size. That backs Lumen's intercity build, though its next allocation may require a bigger commitment. Tight Corning supply gives Amphenol room to gain share until capacity expands; strong demand alone has not lifted stocks across the chain. x.comÂ
Coherent is the backbone of AI photonics, supplying transceivers to data centers worldwide as the optical transition from copper is just getting started and Nvidia pays billions. It could rise from $335 to $1,300 by 2030 for holders with conviction. x.comÂ
