VenkatP
Physician, Growth & Value Stock Investor
Record data-center construction supports Sterling Infrastructure, Quanta Services, Comfort Systems USA, Vertiv and Argan. Per The Kobeissi Letter, US data-center construction spending jumped 46% YoY in June to a record $68 billion annualized rate, up 158% since January 2024, and now exceeds office construction by a record $25 billion. Kobeissi calls AI the driver of the biggest investment wave in US history. x.comÂ
Alphabet's capex guidance was the key test for the whole AI supply chain after weeks of technical damage in AI leaders. Holding or raising it would show hyperscalers still committed to AI infrastructure despite debate over model efficiency and cheaper inference, supporting GPUs, HBM, networking, optics, power and data-center construction; a slowdown would suggest the correction had further to run. Alphabet delivered, raising full-year 2026 capex guidance to as much as $205 billion. x.com x.comÂ
AI data-center spending should reach chips first, then racks, power and cooling, benefiting Nvidia, AMD, Vertiv, Bloom Energy, Credo, Marvell, Lumentum and Micron. BofA forecasts the global data-center market at about $1T in 2026, $2.1T in 2028 and nearly $3T by 2030, a 37% annual rise; roughly 80% of a new AI site's $57M per MW cost goes to servers, networking and storage. x.comÂ
Vertiv's power and cooling gear is benefiting from the AI data-center build-out. Q3 net sales rose 61%, operating profit 90% and net income 92%. There is no more direct picks-and-shovels bet on AI infrastructure than Vertiv. Grade: A. x.comÂ
AI infrastructure names such as Vertiv, Bloom Energy and Sterling are an attractive, asymmetric short because slowing data-center builds should slow their order growth. Semis are historically overbought, a $200 billion company jumped 40% on its CEO calling it undervalued, companies may start rationalizing AI spend, Anthropic's revenue acceleration could slow, and a $1.5 trillion space IPO looms. Any waning momentum could cause severe unraveling. This is a high-conviction playbook into September. … Show more
AI data-center spending flows beyond GPUs and operators into networking, optics, power and cooling. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Marvell supply chips; Arista, Nokia and Credo connectivity; Applied Optoelectronics and Lumentum optics; Vistra, Constellation and Bloom power; Vertiv and Modine cooling. Meta's $140B spending this year illustrates the scale, per a commenter with whom the point is agreed. x.com x.comÂ
Vertiv's surging orders and Q3 growth show AI infrastructure demand exceeding expectations. Per WallStEngine, revenue rose 61% to $4.3B, adjusted EPS rose 78% to $2.21, organic orders grew more than 100%, and FY26 guidance was raised above estimates. Vertiv is delivering into accelerating demand for its power and cooling equipment. x.com x.comÂ
AI data centers need cooling, electricity and transmission, sustaining the case for Vertiv, GE Vernova and Quanta Services. Vertiv's sales rose 26% in the past year; its systems cool AI chips. GE Vernova is the go-to power trade for its gas turbines. Quanta builds the lines to data centers and has a record $53B backlog. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Comfort Systems, MasTec and Quanta Services are hidden champions of the physical build-out behind AI data centers and US reshoring. Tech giants' data centers need massive cooling and electrical infrastructure, which Comfort Systems builds; it is up 500% from its lows. MasTec and Quanta build the power lines, water lines and pipelines for a factory boom funded by the Chips Act and Inflation Reduction Act. They rarely make headlines but are booked out for decades and quietly outperforming. x.comÂ
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's unmet AI demand pays its bottleneck suppliers. Super Micro's $19.5B quarterly outlook and under 8x forward earnings point to a double. CoreWeave's Meta deals total $35.2B; it should easily top $100. Builders say nearly all new sites use Dell or Super Micro; Dell could easily double. Micron's demand is off the charts at 5x forward earnings. Sources say Vertiv's gear is sold out for 2-3 years. VivoPower has 2GW+ potential in 5-7 years. Digi Power X has a $1.1B Cerebras deal. x.com x.com … Show more
CoreWeave's results confirm the AI supercycle, and the next wave of capital is moving beyond semiconductors after their big runs. CoreWeave reported $2.58 billion of revenue, up 122%, a $104 billion backlog and more than $25 billion of new customer commitments already in Q3. That capital is flowing into data centers (Nebius, IREN, Riot, Applied Digital), networking (Arista, Marvell), photonics (Lumentum, Coherent, Applied Optoelectronics) and power (Vertiv, Constellation, Vistra, Oklo). x.com … Show more
