USA Rare Earth is a high-beta play on MP Materials, while the much smaller United States Antimony and Critical Metals offer more speculative, momentum-driven upside. x.com
Anand
AI Engineer, Thematic Stock & Crypto Trader, Fundamental & Technical Analysis
USA Rare Earth is breaking out of a larger downtrend and an eight-month base, a stronger setup than the last downtrend break, which ripped 138% in 11 trading days. The US government has a stake, a backdrop similar to Intel before its big move this year. Rare earths are picks and shovels for AI infrastructure through magnets, semiconductors and power systems. If the breakout holds, a multi-month rally should follow, as the market looks past today's early production stage. x.com x.com x.com
MP Materials looks like a no-brainer at current prices because the US has no choice but to back domestic rare earth suppliers. Rare earth demand should at least double in five years, and China could cut off supply at any time, making MP a national-security hedge with a big government stake. About $1.15B of 2030 EBIT at 30x implies roughly $200 a share. With customers in chips, robotics, drones and defense, MP deserves a premium to Freeport and BHP, and it is 2+ years ahead of USA Rare Earth. … Show more
USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels and MP Materials are a pass for now because whale accumulation on their weekly charts is gradually decreasing. They are not a favored setup yet. x.com
MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels and American Resources should benefit as rare earths become vital to the coming robotics revolution and the US has a national security incentive to break China's stranglehold at every chokepoint from mining to magnets. If robotics demand explodes, margins should rise as revenue scales, then cash flow expands as buildout capex drops. MP and USA Rare Earth are nearing scaled commercialization in the early 2030s; a buy-and-hold into the next decade. x.com … Show more
Aeluma, USA Rare Earth and MP Materials have the same government-backed setup that drove Intel up 600% after the US took a 10% stake, giving each 7–10x potential. Aeluma signed a letter of intent for CHIPS Act money in exchange for a government equity stake. Commerce is backing pre-revenue USA Rare Earth with $1.6B for up to 16% as it builds America's only heavy rare earth mine-to-magnet chain. The Pentagon owns 15% of MP Materials, the only fully integrated US rare earth producer. x.com x.com
United States Antimony is likely to cut its full-year guidance later this year because its Q1 showed management's promises going unfulfilled. Per an analysis the author quotes, gross margin fell to 16.4% from 33.9% instead of expanding on in-house ore, as cost per pound jumped 69% and stock-based pay hit $4.8M. Reiterated $125M FY26 revenue guidance needs Q2-Q4 to average 5.8x the Q1 run-rate. Everything would have to go right, which never happens at a mining company. x.com x.com x.com
United States Antimony is a rare-earth play with investments from US government agencies, and rare earths are critical to the AI buildout. Its chart looks similar to Navitas and POET before they recently broke out. x.com
United States Antimony looks undervalued, with its board authorizing up to $100 million of buybacks after CEO Gary Evans called the shares undervalued following a review of its US, Canada and Mexico projects. It is the only fully integrated antimony producer outside China and Russia. With 25% of the float short, there is an 18% gap to fill, though buybacks may not begin right away. x.com x.com x.com
USA Rare Earth gets a bullish same-day call, with no underlying reason given. x.com
USA Rare Earth is attractive again now that it trades below the government's $17.17 entry price. More shares are wanted, but with patience for now. x.com x.com