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Terry

Private Fund Portfolio Manager & Trader

27 May, 03:42Latest

Microsoft's valuation can recover if a few conditions come through, and the current risk-reward looks acceptable. A jury dismissed Elon Musk's claims against OpenAI and Microsoft on procedural grounds, removing a feared overhang despite a planned appeal. Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats grew 33% in a quarter to 20M, about 4.3% penetration, and the new $99 E7 bundle builds Copilot into the base package. Maia cannot end its Nvidia reliance soon, but a rotation to cash-rich value stocks could help. x.com

MSFT

Prepared Remarks

Equity Investor, Macro Commentary

28 Oct

MSFT

Microsoft's 50% Azure growth and prospect of positive cash flow in 2027 make the stock look bulletproof. Headcount cuts, lower Anthropic spend, a better Copilot routed to cheaper tokens, and coming proprietary chips and model usage add to the case. It should get Apple's multiple plus recognition for cybersecurity. x.com x.com

SouthernValue

Public Markets Investor

29 Oct

MSFT

Microsoft's salesforce and governed platform unlock AI spending at conservative firms. Faster enterprise than consumer AI adoption makes it effectively the only pure play. M365 Commercial may top 20% growth next quarter, sooner than expected on tonight's guide; GitHub resegmentation helps, but it should do so this year anyway. Azure and M365, two-thirds of revenue, should grow above 50% and 20% and may accelerate. $24-25 CY27 EPS remains achievable, implying under 22x forward earnings. x.com … Show more

Oliver | MMMT Wealth

Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis

28 Mar

MSFT

Microsoft is losing ground in fast AI innovation and is not cheap enough to compensate. Copilot was strong a few months ago but is no longer competitive in an agent-driven world, and the stock closed below its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2013. At about 21x forward EPS for 22% growth it is solid but not cheap, and compared with Nvidia there is little argument for allocating even 1% of a portfolio to Microsoft. x.com

Nicholas Mugalli

Institutional TMT & Macro Research, AI/Semiconductors/Policy

28 Oct

MSFT

Microsoft's AI spending is producing faster growth with better economics: Azure accelerated to 48% on a $100B+ base while capex was $39.4B, below expectations. Management then guided Azure to 49-50% and said demand still exceeds supply, ending the debate over whether AI investment is paying off. Overweight, $625 target. x.com x.com x.com

Dan Niles

Founder & Portfolio Manager of Niles Investment Management

2 Aug

MSFT

Microsoft's Copilot could win in enterprise AI long term because it runs natively in Microsoft 365, where enterprise work already happens, with only about 30 million of some 450 million paid M365 seats on it so far. Microsoft guided above consensus, and Azure growth improved from 39% to 43%, with 45% guided. Value is shifting from models to infrastructure like public clouds. OpenAI, 27% owned by Microsoft, is the biggest concern, which is partly why Microsoft is exploring open-source models. … Show more

Alex

Canadian Dividend Investor, Founder of The Profit Zone/Profit Academy

6 Jul

MSFT

Microsoft is a great business but still an expensive bet at $385, because heavy AI capex is eroding free cash flow. Capex was revised to $190B for the year, $43B above expectations, and free cash flow fell to $15.8B. Revenue grew 18% to $82.9B, operating income 20%, Azure 40% and AI run rate reached $37B, with a 47% operating margin. The average analyst target of $560 implies 45% upside only if the AI spending converts on schedule. x.com

Rihard Jarc

Co-Founder & CIO of New Era Funds, AI/Cloud/Semiconductor Research

30 Jul

MSFT

Microsoft's latest earnings showed accelerating Azure growth with broad demand beyond frontier AI labs, capex discipline and Copilot turning the corner. Azure grew 43%, guided to 45%, with nearly 90% of $214 billion cloud revenue from customers outside frontier labs and RPO up 84% to $678 billion. It held capex while squeezing more from existing infrastructure, and can slow chip purchases if demand cools. Copilot passed 30 million paid seats, with revenue up over 60% quarter over quarter. x.com

Rich Peter

Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs

13 Oct

MSFT

Microsoft's planned Maia 300 deployment could lower Azure compute costs and lift cloud gross margins. The in-house chip is intended for gigawatt-scale deployment with roughly 40% more tokens per megawatt; savings remain prospective. Azure growth of 43-45% and a $678 billion commercial backlog support the enterprise AI case, while Execution Containers and Agent 365 extend its agent-workflow offering. Microsoft could reach $680. x.com

Joe

Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points

4 Apr

MSFT

Microsoft and software stocks broadly still look expensive, because AI will get exponentially better over the next two years and the market may reset software valuations much lower. Software valuations have always been ludicrous, and heavy stock-based compensation behind many software revenues is widely ignored. Winners will emerge, but picking them is not worth trying. x.com x.com

Trade Whisperer

Memory Engineer & Data Scientist, Founder of Blue Pink Candles

29 Oct

MSFT

Azure's accelerating growth and better returns per capex dollar leave further upside on the table for Microsoft, the favored hyperscaler. Azure grew 48% versus 44-45% guidance, its fifth straight beat. The stock is holding eight-week EMA support, with the blue candle still intact. x.com

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