Matthew Tuttle
CEO & CIO of Tuttle Capital Management, Publisher of Daily H.E.A.T.
SpaceX's 912 million-share unlock was a supply event rather than a verdict on the business, and demand has absorbed it. AI segment revenue grew 213% sequentially and adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $1.15B from a $609M loss, showing Wall Street pays the beneficiaries of AI capex. The same float expansion should raise SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 weight at the September rebalance, so with insider selling behind it, passive buying is still to come. x.comÂ
SpaceX's AI growth is a financing problem, not a demand problem, and the market rewards beneficiaries of AI spending, not the spenders. Q2 revenue rose 92% to $7.8B and AI turned adjusted-EBITDA positive, but capex hit $18.4B in one quarter; first-half operating cash flow of $3.5B against $28.5B of capex left a roughly $25B gap funded by the IPO and a $25B bond deal. About 912M shares, roughly $99B, unlock this week, though September's Nasdaq-100 float update brings passive buying later. x.comÂ
SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's strong earnings give its bullish setup fresh fundamental support. Revenue of $14.58 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $8.81 billion and operating income of $2.79 billion beat expectations, as did connectivity and space revenue; 35 launches and mass to orbit fell short. The shares are also pushing through a cup-and-handle breakout. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.comÂ
SpaceX's stronger-than-expected Q3 and surging Space Intelligence business make its valuation look more defensible. Revenue was $14.6 billion versus about $12.9 billion expected, adjusted EBITDA rose 306% to $8.8 billion, and Space Intelligence grew 830% to $7.6 billion, becoming its largest segment. Even half of the $500 billion to $1 trillion ARR Elon Musk is talking about by end-2027 would make the earlier valuation objection wrong; sentiment is now bullish. x.comÂ
SpaceX's AI business and profitable growth challenge calls for its stock to go much lower. Q3 revenue reached $14.6B, up 161%, with $4.4B profit and $7.6B from AI. A Tesla merger is being discussed. x.comÂ
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.comÂ
SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.comÂ
SpaceX stock should benefit from basic supply and demand: its float is relatively low and it is on a fast track into the Nasdaq-100, so institutions need to position ahead of inclusion. Current market conditions and sentiment support that, and in a generational bull market the best approach is to stay invested in winners. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX faces a series of large share unlocks that could add selling supply. Another 911 million shares become eligible for sale tomorrow, followed by 328 million on Oct. 24, 319 million on Oct. 26, 1.3 billion in early November and 797 million in December; Elon's 6.4 billion shares become eligible in June 2027. x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
