Pure-play AI drug discovery names, including Recursion, Schrödinger, Relay Therapeutics, Absci and Tempus AI, look well positioned as a basket. x.com
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Equity & Macro Commentary, Technology Investing
The AI and biology basket now adds AbCellera and Hims & Hers and looks set to destroy the market over the next 10 years. ImmunityBio is the immune system's operating system, Nautilus is the Tesla of proteomics, Recursion is superhuman biology-chemistry AI, AbCellera is the machine that can hit any target in the body, and Hims & Hers is the dominant direct-to-consumer distribution layer. x.com
AI-enabled drug discovery is the next re-rate, because if AI raises lab hit rates, the cost of failure falls across the sector and beaten-down platforms re-rate first. Recursion is the cleanest expression, an AI-first platform built to industrialize discovery. AbCellera and Tempus apply AI to antibody discovery and the diagnostics data layer, with real revenue under the story. The trap is paying a winner's multiple before the trial proves the winner. x.com
Iambic's R&D split and the basket's returns show why data-generating lab work matters more than compute in applied AI biotech. Iambic's S-1 puts about 8 cents of its 2025 R&D dollar into compute, 31 into discovery and the lab, and 28.5 into the clinic. After two months, the basket rose 20.5% versus -0.2% for the S&P 500 and -4.8% for biotech. Data-producing names rose 33.5%, or 16.8% without Moderna's readout day, versus 9% for bioprocess and reagents. The market bought the data. x.com
Pharma, biotech and genomics stocks could benefit as frontier AI accelerates drug design, which may help explain the health sector's recent strength. Anthropic's Mythos 5 sped up parts of its protein design work about 10x, proposed an E. coli binding mechanism later validated by an outside lab, and beat purpose-built models on AAV gene therapy predictions. Biology capabilities appear restricted and Anthropic plans its own drugs, so the gain depends on pharma eventually adopting such models. … Show more
Biotech is the next AI trade, as AI turns drug discovery from a 10-year guessing game into a data problem while investors still treat the sector like a casino. Tempus AI uses a large clinical dataset for AI diagnostics; Recursion maps over a trillion cells with Genentech and Sanofi as partners; CRISPR Therapeutics has catalysts before end-2026; Absci designs antibodies with generative AI and starts Phase 2; Schrödinger sells physics-plus-AI design software and posted a surprise profit. x.com … Show more
Twist Bioscience could benefit as cheaper AI hypothesis generation and validation make physical experiments the bottleneck. It is currently the purest Anthropic-related biotech beneficiary in this view because Twist handles those experiments. More efficient hypothesis work may eventually ease even that bottleneck, but it is too early to give up on the opportunity. x.com
Recursion Pharmaceuticals could see huge catalysts from positive phase I and II news due in the second half of this year. Its AI drug-discovery platform has five clinical trials in progress, and big pharma and biopharma are spending billions on AI-driven platforms. Market research firms project 38-45% annual growth for AI genomics through the early 2030s. The stock found support around $3 and has some momentum. x.com
Agilent could benefit significantly as AI adoption in drug discovery and life sciences boosts demand for research infrastructure. Strong free cash flow and an improving EPS outlook accompany its massive five-year base; the larger base points to greater upside. x.com
AI-enabled healthcare and genomics could deliver the next photonics-like returns, as AI transforms the sector and improves success rates just as it did in tech. The market is getting ready to price these names as future winners, and those that succeed will be real winners. Beaten-down stocks such as AbCellera, Tempus AI and Twist Bioscience, plus the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF, are looking at billion-dollar markets. x.com
AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com … Show more