Ben Pouladian
Founder of BEP Research, AI Compute Economics
Iambic's R&D split and the basket's returns show why data-generating lab work matters more than compute in applied AI biotech. Iambic's S-1 puts about 8 cents of its 2025 R&D dollar into compute, 31 into discovery and the lab, and 28.5 into the clinic. After two months, the basket rose 20.5% versus -0.2% for the S&P 500 and -4.8% for biotech. Data-producing names rose 33.5%, or 16.8% without Moderna's readout day, versus 9% for bioprocess and reagents. The market bought the data. x.com
The next inflection in AI biotech is the lab, and Anthropic's first molecular biology result shows why: Claude proposed the experiments, but Anthropic's scientists ran them. The Street hears invention, while this basket of Thermo Fisher, Danaher, Illumina, Twist Bioscience, Tempus, 10x Genomics and Schrodinger owns the make-and-test steps. The moat is the measurement. x.com
Tempus AI's new pharma contracts put cash payments behind its data and AI platform, beyond diagnostics. Bristol Myers Squibb renewed and expanded oncology-data and Lens access for $137.5M in fixed payments through 2031; Pathos agreed to pay up to $55M for 500,000 neurology records and updates over five years, depending on delivery. Together the deals total up to $192.5M, meaningful validation though not an enormous sum. x.com
Tempus AI's diagnostics-to-data-to-AI flywheel makes its roughly 7.2x forward sales interesting, about half Natera's and Guardant's 16x, though both grow faster. Q2 revenue rose 22% to $382.5M, Data Licensing & Modeling grew 36%, and 2026 guidance is about $1.6B of revenue and $65M of adjusted EBITDA. As a ~25% growth diagnostics company, ~7x may be reasonable; if growth reaccelerates toward 30%+, Data + Applications grows much larger and margins expand, the valuation could look very different. … Show more
Danaher's AI-driven life-sciences expectations look excessive against its results. After a 44% rise since May on hopes AI would lift life sciences to unprecedented levels, it missed Q3 revenue and guided Q4 growth to just 4-5%. x.com
AI-enabled drug discovery is the next re-rate, because if AI raises lab hit rates, the cost of failure falls across the sector and beaten-down platforms re-rate first. Recursion is the cleanest expression, an AI-first platform built to industrialize discovery. AbCellera and Tempus apply AI to antibody discovery and the diagnostics data layer, with real revenue under the story. The trap is paying a winner's multiple before the trial proves the winner. x.com
Biotech, including Thermo Fisher, Eli Lilly, Intellia, CRISPR, Illumina and NeoGenomics, stands to gain as AI-trade capital rotates out of infrastructure, since healthcare is the largest market AI has yet to disrupt. AI hardware is worth about $14 trillion versus $1.4 trillion for biotech, so a 2.5% rotation could, at 5x inelasticity, put $1.75 trillion of pressure on biotech. Capital isn't leaving the AI trade; the equal-weighted S&P 500 is at all-time highs. x.com x.com
Biotech tools stocks such as Charles River and Illumina are in a narrative-driven mania while their fundamentals haven't really moved. Charles River is ripping after reaffirming guidance for negative revenue growth this year. Illumina hasn't grown in five years, yet trades at over 50x earnings and 35x EV/EBITDA, with merely fine margins. Five straight years of easier comparisons are being sold as a coiled spring. x.com x.com x.com
Pure-play AI drug discovery names, including Recursion, Schrödinger, Relay Therapeutics, Absci and Tempus AI, look well positioned as a basket. x.com
Biotech is the next AI trade, as AI turns drug discovery from a 10-year guessing game into a data problem while investors still treat the sector like a casino. Tempus AI uses a large clinical dataset for AI diagnostics; Recursion maps over a trillion cells with Genentech and Sanofi as partners; CRISPR Therapeutics has catalysts before end-2026; Absci designs antibodies with generative AI and starts Phase 2; Schrödinger sells physics-plus-AI design software and posted a surprise profit. x.com … Show more
AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com … Show more
Tempus AI has a data moat no one has replicated: a multimodal, patient-linked genomic, clinical and imaging dataset at scale. It holds over 8 million imaging files, 1.5 million matched clinical and molecular profiles and 4.5 million sequencing samples, which drug companies leaning on AI increasingly need. It is expanding from oncology into cardiology, neuropsychiatry and radiology. Revenue grows 25% and gross margin rose from 32% in 2021 to 64%, though last quarter's profit was a one-time item. … Show more
