US stocks benefit when rates rise with growth because earnings outpace the drag from higher discount rates. Such periods have historically been very bullish, unlike inflation-led rate rises amid slowing growth. Since fall 2025 the 10-year yield rose from 4.1% to 5.1% while nominal GDP growth accelerated to 6.6%, faster than rates. Being long offers better risk/reward; high oil prices due to the war are the remaining inflation pressure, and an end to the war would improve the setup further. x.com 

Renewed inflation raises the risk of a December rate hike and downside for the Nasdaq 100. Per Wall St Engine, core PCE reached 3.1% year over year, up from 3.0%, and rose 0.3% month over month, up from 0.2% previously. CPI, PPI and PCE are all rising again; a December hike is the bet. x.com 

The Iran war, rising oil prices and inflationary pressure do not yet look severe enough to trigger a major economic crisis. Despite some deterioration in the macro picture and short-term volatility, the broader picture remains relatively healthy and the long-term outlook for US large-cap and Nasdaq 100 stocks is very positive. x.com 

The 10-year yield above 5% limits how far the US equity rally can stretch, even as stocks shrugged off the Fed hold. Two policymakers wanted a hike, the 10-year rose to about 5.04%, and bonds sold while all four major indices closed higher. Rates need to cool for the rally to extend. x.com 

Oil stabilizing or falling would ease inflation and open the door to lower interest rates, supporting a market rebound. At current oil levels, a few more painful months may give way to recovery; falling oil would accelerate it into an everything rally. If oil instead rises above $100 and stays there, the S&P 500 probably has a down year in 2027. x.com 

The S&P 500 still looks headed to 8,000 and QQQ to 780, with the 10-year Treasury yield held below its trend line and bond volatility, as measured by MOVE, still falling. VIX and oil are dropping too, and oil will likely break its rising channel toward $80. Index pullbacks to the 10- and 20-day EMAs are opportunities; a 10-year yield above 5.35% or a break above that trend line would call for caution. x.com 

Big tech faces the most pressure as oil, Treasury yields and the dollar rise together, with Brent near $100, the 10-year above 4.7% and the dollar index above 101. Higher oil lifts inflation expectations, higher yields compress valuations and a stronger dollar tightens global liquidity, while risk-asset deleveraging is not fully cleared. Oil is the key, and Trump may not back down over Hormuz until markets show extreme pessimism. Alphabet's capex and negative free cash flow also worry investors. … Show more

Far less inflated valuations and significant AI earnings make US equities unlike the dot-com market top. AI/SI spending may still be overexuberant. Rates and yields have returned to historical averages; more oil through the Strait of Hormuz and from OPEC and Russia should lower oil and inflation. The market may not have bottomed yet, but falling yields, steady rates and the midterms passing should let it climb the wall of worry. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Capital is rotating out of crude oil, gold and silver into equities, with crypto to follow, giving the bull market fresh legs. All three commodities look exhausted after their melt-up, though their longer-term debasement, deficit and industrial-demand stories remain intact. Lower energy and commodity prices mean better margins and less inflation pressure. US large caps and the Nasdaq-100 show no signs of topping as AI earnings lift the S&P 500, and bitcoin is likely bottoming in the mid-$60Ks. … Show more

US large-cap equities look stretched as the S&P 500's 4.7% earnings yield sits below the 5.2% Treasury yield, the first extended stretch since 1999-2000. 2026 EPS estimates imply 32% growth and a 21.2x P/E. The 10-year yield hit 5.28%, its highest since 2007, which pressures long-duration, high-P/E stocks most. Since recent inflation is mostly an oil supply shock, yields could fall once the war with Iran ends and Brent eases. x.com  x.com