Alex A.C.
Value/GARP Investor, Semiconductor & Financial Analysis, Electronics MEng
Merlin's deal with Israel Aerospace Industries adds credibility and a distribution path, though not revenue, and kills the argument that there is no large-aircraft market, per @ShawarmaCapital. IAI did $7.4B of revenue last year, holds a roughly $29B backlog and leads passenger-to-freighter conversions, owning the only approved 777 widebody conversion in service. There is certainly a future market for large civil aircraft. x.com
Merlin is nearing commercial service: pending regulatory acceptance, it intends to launch revenue-generating operations in New Zealand with certified aircraft flown by Merlin Pilot from takeoff to touchdown. Merlin says it is in the final phases of certification with New Zealand's CAA, alongside FAA validation, targeting 2027 to become the first to fly a traditionally crewed fixed-wing aircraft autonomously in revenue service. Management's timelines are clear and very bullish. x.com x.com
Merlin's finished Critical Design Review for its C-130J autonomy program with US Special Operations Command removes a big chunk of technical risk. It shows Merlin Pilot AI meets the performance, safety and airworthiness standards for one of the military's key transport aircraft, and the program moves to integration and flight tests. A $100 million-plus IDIQ ceiling and commercial runway in cargo and pilot shortages make it asymmetric, and high short interest adds explosive potential. x.com
Merlin's pivot to certifying its autonomy for large aircraft opens a much bigger runway than the small-aircraft path it is leaving, drawing on its defense experience with high-assurance platforms. Days later it demonstrated autonomous takeoff, landing and AI-powered air traffic control communications at TxDOT's Project NEXUS alongside partners such as Joby. It holds $183.9M in cash with no debt, and the chart shows a rounding bottom after a slide since April. x.com
Merlin is a 100x-or-bankrupt opportunity, too binary to invest in personally despite liking Merlin and Matt. Shield AI and Anduril are focused on defense right now, but it makes sense for them to go after the commercial sector eventually with proven tech, and more competitors are targeting cargo. The stock should rebound once high-beta names come back into favor. x.com
Merlin is building aircraft-agnostic AI autonomy software for any plane, and completing the Critical Design Review for its C-130J program with US Special Operations Command is a genuine inflection point. The review moves the program, with a $105M ceiling, from design into aircraft integration and toward live flight tests. Success could open other special-operations aircraft and tankers, and the new Condor line targets commercial air cargo. Merlin raised $80M, and analyst targets sit at $11–15. … Show more
Merlin's recent weakness reflects its April raise and pre-revenue losses, not its de-risked program. USSOCOM cleared its C-130J critical design review, the gate where most autonomy programs die, moving it to integration and flight test under a $100M+ IDIQ. Merlin Pilot has logged its first fully automated takeoffs and is moving through FAA certification. Airframes are commodities; the autonomy OS is the chokepoint. The tell is the IDIQ converting to booked revenue. x.com x.com
Merlin's long-term competitive moat is questionable, because companies like Anduril, Boeing or Lockheed Martin could build similar technology in-house instead of paying Merlin for it. The stock is a falling knife; a break of the downtrend would help, and landing a big new partner or contract could break the trend short term, but the long-term fundamentals remain the concern. x.com x.com
Merlin trades at 5.6x FY27 revenue versus about 13x for Anduril in the same autonomous defense category, a public-market discount, and completing a USSOCOM design review clears its first hard gate. Per @mkfilko, its certified, aircraft-agnostic autonomy software replaces pilot labor and has flown on more than seven airframe types, including KC-135 tankers and C-130J transports, and the stock could double and still sit at Anduril's multiple. Production contract timing is the open question. x.com
Merlin is at a decent entry point. It builds AI-powered autonomous flight software and systems for military and civilian aircraft, and its Merlin Pilot aims to become the operating system for autonomous flight. x.com
Merlin was always highly speculative: buying a stock at 125x sales means accepting it could fall to 30x without any solid reason why it shouldn't. Its price spike came when it was being pitched like crazy on X. x.com x.com
Merlin could squeeze sharply because about 72% of the float is short in a low-float de-SPAC positioned in AI and military spending, two of the decade's biggest themes. The float should stay dried up until late May or June, raising the question of whether it can reach $30 or even $50. x.com
