Rosanna Prestia
Founder & CEO of Hydra Wealth/Capital, Investment Strategist, Asymmetry & Bitcoin
Merlin's recent weakness reflects its April raise and pre-revenue losses, not its de-risked program. USSOCOM cleared its C-130J critical design review, the gate where most autonomy programs die, moving it to integration and flight test under a $100M+ IDIQ. Merlin Pilot has logged its first fully automated takeoffs and is moving through FAA certification. Airframes are commodities; the autonomy OS is the chokepoint. The tell is the IDIQ converting to booked revenue. x.com x.com
Merlin is starting to re-rate from a pre-revenue de-SPAC to a defense flight-autonomy platform after clearing the critical design review milestone on its C-130J autonomy program. That moves its $105M IDIQ ceiling toward deployment. Its 20-day moving average held on record volume, as @Reformed_Trader noted, because the catalyst was real; chart and fundamentals now agree. x.com
Merlin's finished Critical Design Review for its C-130J autonomy program with US Special Operations Command removes a big chunk of technical risk. It shows Merlin Pilot AI meets the performance, safety and airworthiness standards for one of the military's key transport aircraft, and the program moves to integration and flight tests. A $100 million-plus IDIQ ceiling and commercial runway in cargo and pilot shortages make it asymmetric, and high short interest adds explosive potential. x.com
Merlin is building aircraft-agnostic AI autonomy software for any plane, and completing the Critical Design Review for its C-130J program with US Special Operations Command is a genuine inflection point. The review moves the program, with a $105M ceiling, from design into aircraft integration and toward live flight tests. Success could open other special-operations aircraft and tankers, and the new Condor line targets commercial air cargo. Merlin raised $80M, and analyst targets sit at $11–15. … Show more
Merlin's long-term competitive moat is questionable, because companies like Anduril, Boeing or Lockheed Martin could build similar technology in-house instead of paying Merlin for it. The stock is a falling knife; a break of the downtrend would help, and landing a big new partner or contract could break the trend short term, but the long-term fundamentals remain the concern. x.com x.com
Merlin trades at 5.6x FY27 revenue versus about 13x for Anduril in the same autonomous defense category, a public-market discount, and completing a USSOCOM design review clears its first hard gate. Per @mkfilko, its certified, aircraft-agnostic autonomy software replaces pilot labor and has flown on more than seven airframe types, including KC-135 tankers and C-130J transports, and the stock could double and still sit at Anduril's multiple. Production contract timing is the open question. x.com
Merlin's pivot to certifying its autonomy for large aircraft opens a much bigger runway than the small-aircraft path it is leaving, drawing on its defense experience with high-assurance platforms. Days later it demonstrated autonomous takeoff, landing and AI-powered air traffic control communications at TxDOT's Project NEXUS alongside partners such as Joby. It holds $183.9M in cash with no debt, and the chart shows a rounding bottom after a slide since April. x.com
Merlin is a 100x-or-bankrupt opportunity, too binary to invest in personally despite liking Merlin and Matt. Shield AI and Anduril are focused on defense right now, but it makes sense for them to go after the commercial sector eventually with proven tech, and more competitors are targeting cargo. The stock should rebound once high-beta names come back into favor. x.com
Merlin's deal with Israel Aerospace Industries adds credibility and a distribution path, though not revenue, and kills the argument that there is no large-aircraft market, per @ShawarmaCapital. IAI did $7.4B of revenue last year, holds a roughly $29B backlog and leads passenger-to-freighter conversions, owning the only approved 777 widebody conversion in service. There is certainly a future market for large civil aircraft. x.com
Merlin is at a decent entry point. It builds AI-powered autonomous flight software and systems for military and civilian aircraft, and its Merlin Pilot aims to become the operating system for autonomous flight. x.com
Merlin Labs common stock is in a death spiral toward zero because preferred holders and shorts hold the upper hand. Equity raises have no limit and the preferred ranks senior to the common, so fundamental analysis does not matter. @ShawarmaCapital, a former bull, attributes the fall from $17 to $1.81 to a roughly 44M-share unlock on a thin float, a Series A Preferred conversion reset on October 15 already headed for its $5 floor, and an unwinding short squeeze. x.com x.com
Merlin could squeeze sharply because about 72% of the float is short in a low-float de-SPAC positioned in AI and military spending, two of the decade's biggest themes. The float should stay dried up until late May or June, raising the question of whether it can reach $30 or even $50. x.com
