Sandisk's new long-range targets are a strong positive, and investors who treat it as a cyclical could face a couple of hard years watching the price rip. Sandisk laid out FY28-FY30 targets of mid-to-high-teens revenue growth, about 80% non-GAAP gross margin and about 50% adjusted free cash flow margin, and expects to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. x.com 

SanDisk's data-center flash growth shows AI inference is becoming a larger storage customer. Data-center revenue reached $4.8bn, up 61% in a quarter and over 40% of sales; total revenue of $11bn and EPS of $49.51 beat expectations. Guidance of $12.4bn revenue and $56 EPS suggests feared supply normalization has not yet eroded pricing. Overweight, with a $2,700 target. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk's datacenter shipments and restrained bit-supply plan strengthen its growth case, without settling contract protection in a downturn. Management attributed roughly 60% of fiscal Q1 revenue growth to volume and 40% to price; datacenter sales rose 61% sequentially to $4.8B, supplying 88% of total growth. It retains mid-to-high-teens bit growth rather than accelerating supply. Consumer sales fell 29%, and the CFO cautioned against carrying Q2's growth rate into fiscal Q3. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk's ability to keep a 75% operating margin over the next few years may not be fully priced in, even though its long-term agreements are widely known; the market was still shocked by that guidance. Cash beyond investment going to buybacks or dividends would give the stock a big lift, and expectations for HBF add to the case. x.com 

Sandisk's earnings growth makes its valuation look unusually low, with guidance showing no slowdown. Revenue rose 378% year over year, and $52.5 GAAP EPS implies a 6.1 annualized P/E, below Micron's. Sandisk's roughly 85% gross margin also compares favorably with SK hynix's apparently sub-50% NAND margin. Next-quarter guidance calls for $12.2 billion-$12.6 billion of revenue and $55-$57 non-GAAP EPS. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SanDisk has run up about 3,000% since its 2025 IPO, turning a $10,000 investment into nearly $300,000 in a year. x.com 

Sandisk could be the memory supercycle's biggest winner because long-term NAND contracts may make earnings more durable than in past cycles. About $93.9 billion of floor-priced deals cover half of expected FY27 bit shipments and two-thirds in FY28 amid rising AI storage demand. Floors do not guarantee margins; management's roughly 50% adjusted free cash flow margin target for FY28-30 is not reported cash flow. Profitable contracts and sustainable cash generation could support a higher multiple. … Show more

SanDisk faces two near-term catalysts: Nasdaq-100 inclusion on April 20, which makes every tracking ETF and fund a forced buyer, and April 30 earnings showing a fundamental change. Consensus expects EPS of $13.90 versus a $0.30 loss a year ago and revenue of $4.61B versus $1.70B. The stock rose on Friday while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell. Analysts keep raising targets, all at Buy: Cantor Fitzgerald to $1,000, Bank of America to $900 and Citigroup to $875. x.com 

SanDisk has likely topped for this cycle, and memory stocks such as Micron are rolling over even though fundamentals still look incredible. In cycles, price weakens first, estimates and targets fall later, and the narrative flips only after the damage is done, with vicious failed rallies along the way. SanDisk already guided lower, its gross margin has plateaued and price action has been terrible, so it likely goes lower. Sell on technicals rather than waiting for fundamentals to erode. x.com  … Show more

SanDisk looks remarkably cheap at about 11x forward earnings. x.com