Simplifying Stocks, CPA
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Sandisk's earnings growth makes its valuation look unusually low, with guidance showing no slowdown. Revenue rose 378% year over year, and $52.5 GAAP EPS implies a 6.1 annualized P/E, below Micron's. Sandisk's roughly 85% gross margin also compares favorably with SK hynix's apparently sub-50% NAND margin. Next-quarter guidance calls for $12.2 billion-$12.6 billion of revenue and $55-$57 non-GAAP EPS. x.com x.com x.com
SanDisk's data-center flash growth shows AI inference is becoming a larger storage customer. Data-center revenue reached $4.8bn, up 61% in a quarter and over 40% of sales; total revenue of $11bn and EPS of $49.51 beat expectations. Guidance of $12.4bn revenue and $56 EPS suggests feared supply normalization has not yet eroded pricing. Overweight, with a $2,700 target. x.com x.com
Sandisk's datacenter shipments and restrained bit-supply plan strengthen its growth case, without settling contract protection in a downturn. Management attributed roughly 60% of fiscal Q1 revenue growth to volume and 40% to price; datacenter sales rose 61% sequentially to $4.8B, supplying 88% of total growth. It retains mid-to-high-teens bit growth rather than accelerating supply. Consumer sales fell 29%, and the CFO cautioned against carrying Q2's growth rate into fiscal Q3. x.com x.com
Sandisk's fast-growing data-center revenue strengthens its case among memory names with upside. Data-center revenue rose 61% quarter over quarter; revenue of $11.03B, adjusted EPS of $49.51 and adjusted gross margin of 85.1% all exceeded estimates. For upside among Micron, Sandisk and Kioxia, Micron ranks first, then Sandisk, then Kioxia, until further guidance. x.com x.com
SanDisk faces two near-term catalysts: Nasdaq-100 inclusion on April 20, which makes every tracking ETF and fund a forced buyer, and April 30 earnings showing a fundamental change. Consensus expects EPS of $13.90 versus a $0.30 loss a year ago and revenue of $4.61B versus $1.70B. The stock rose on Friday while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell. Analysts keep raising targets, all at Buy: Cantor Fitzgerald to $1,000, Bank of America to $900 and Citigroup to $875. x.com
SanDisk has run up about 3,000% since its 2025 IPO, turning a $10,000 investment into nearly $300,000 in a year. x.com
SanDisk's FY28-FY30 targets are insanely positive, implying as much as $300-350 per share of annual free cash flow at the end of the period. SanDisk targets mid-to-high-teens revenue growth, about 80% non-GAAP gross margin and about 50% adjusted FCF margin, and plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders, effectively a $130 billion buyback over four years. x.com x.com
SanDisk looks quite cheap despite its huge run, because single-digit forward earnings multiples ignore growth of around 100% a year expected over the next two years. A screen for US companies above $10 billion with forward P/Es under 10 and 25%-plus two-year revenue growth yields just seven names, including SanDisk and Micron. Both are cyclical and may not deserve 30–40x forward multiples, but assigning either a single-digit P/E is crazy. x.com x.com
SanDisk has a long way to fall because it is a budget SSD maker trading at a P/E of 36. The leveraged SanDisk fund is already down 89%. x.com
Sandisk is cheap, trading at a forward GAAP price-to-earnings ratio of 6.8, despite @JohnTinsmanAOT's criticism that it is expanding production in Japan while Micron commits to building memory in America. x.com