Marcos Milla
Former Analyst at the Federal Reserve, ETF/Stock Newsletter Author
Sandisk is easily a $2,500 stock because AI needs more storage. The company is projecting strong growth through 2030 and is trying to evolve from a cyclical NAND company into an AI infrastructure business with contracted demand, significantly higher margins, massive free cash flow and better revenue visibility. x.com
Sandisk's earnings growth makes its valuation look unusually low, with guidance showing no slowdown. Revenue rose 378% year over year, and $52.5 GAAP EPS implies a 6.1 annualized P/E, below Micron's. Sandisk's roughly 85% gross margin also compares favorably with SK hynix's apparently sub-50% NAND margin. Next-quarter guidance calls for $12.2 billion-$12.6 billion of revenue and $55-$57 non-GAAP EPS. x.com x.com x.com
SanDisk looks quite cheap despite its huge run, because single-digit forward earnings multiples ignore growth of around 100% a year expected over the next two years. A screen for US companies above $10 billion with forward P/Es under 10 and 25%-plus two-year revenue growth yields just seven names, including SanDisk and Micron. Both are cyclical and may not deserve 30–40x forward multiples, but assigning either a single-digit P/E is crazy. x.com x.com
Sandisk's datacenter shipments and restrained bit-supply plan strengthen its growth case, without settling contract protection in a downturn. Management attributed roughly 60% of fiscal Q1 revenue growth to volume and 40% to price; datacenter sales rose 61% sequentially to $4.8B, supplying 88% of total growth. It retains mid-to-high-teens bit growth rather than accelerating supply. Consumer sales fell 29%, and the CFO cautioned against carrying Q2's growth rate into fiscal Q3. x.com x.com
SanDisk still looks cheap at 19x forward earnings while growing EPS at triple-digit rates, even after shares fell 50% in a month. x.com
SanDisk looks remarkably cheap at about 11x forward earnings. x.com
SanDisk has a long way to fall because it is a budget SSD maker trading at a P/E of 36. The leveraged SanDisk fund is already down 89%. x.com
The need for more memory evident in every company's earnings report makes the market's negative view of Sandisk hard to understand. Yet splitting a stock above $1,000 is one of the dumbest moves a company can make: it hands market makers the ability to manipulate the shares through options, a risk for Sandisk. x.com x.com
Sandisk still looks cheap despite a frothy market, because it actually makes money and data-center growth is strong. It should be able to keep that run going until high-bandwidth flash arrives around 2030, though the trade carries risk and may not work out. x.com x.com
SanDisk has run up about 3,000% since its 2025 IPO, turning a $10,000 investment into nearly $300,000 in a year. x.com
Sandisk's results show a business firing on all cylinders, with revenue up 372% year over year and earnings crushing expectations, so the stock's 7% drop afterwards makes no sense. x.com