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Technology & Semiconductor Equity Commentary
AppLovin's growth, liquidity, free cash flow and profitability make it the clear winner among beaten-down stocks with attractive fundamentals. Research Desk's chart shows EPS generally beating estimates, though the latest revenue missed. x.com
AppLovin is a monster growth company trading at just 15 times forward earnings, while management expects it to grow much faster than the market expects. Per @stock_analysisx, its earnings per share went from $0.09 to $13 in four years, yet the stock is down 60% from its high. x.com
AppLovin's economics and margins may be almost too good to last, because unusually good economics act as a flashing red light inviting competition. Rivals could gradually raise acquisition costs, bid harder for supply or push AppLovin to share more with advertisers and publishers, shrinking 80% margins toward 60% without any rug pull. The moat's strength is unclear; if the economics hold for five years, buying now would work well, and its buybacks have been smart. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
AppLovin is a growth company priced like a value stock as its ecommerce business accelerates. AXON pixel growth rose from 1–3% week over week after the summer launch to 5.1% and then 11.7%, up 25% month over month, as a deliberately slow ramp let it tune models before the holidays. Revenue growth could reach 51–52% in 2026 and 35–40% in 2027, above sell-side estimates of 47.8% and 26.7%. On those numbers, with flat margins, it trades at 13.5x 2027 EPS. x.com
AppLovin looks tempting after a massive reset, with some of the strongest fundamentals on the market, in an elite club with Palantir and CrowdStrike. Its price is down 57% from the highs, back to 2024 levels, and its P/E has fallen from 70x to a record-low 24x. Growth has decelerated from priced-for-perfection levels, but it is still a money machine, software-disruption fears are cooling and the stock is consolidating in a long-term support zone. The bottom is likely close. x.com x.com x.com
AppLovin's ad yield engine has run out of gas, setting up the same structural decay that hit The Trade Desk as ad spend consolidates into walled gardens. Conversion rates stalling around 1.4%, delayed AI rollouts and mounting litigation point to a fundamental tailspin that Piper Sandler's cautious call understates. Being down 60% this year is not a bottom; buying here is catching a falling knife on a broken narrative. x.com
AppLovin may be one of the most mispriced growth stocks, trading at about 15x expected 2027 earnings despite triple-digit EPS growth. In 2025 revenue rose 70% to $5.5B, EPS 116% and free cash flow 91% to $4.0B, with profits growing faster than revenue. Q2 2026 revenue rose 53% to $1.92B with an EBITDA margin of about 84% and $863M of free cash flow. x.com
AppLovin looks cheap for its growth, at just 15 times forward earnings after 61% growth over the last twelve months. More marketers have lately mentioned AppLovin as a place they want to spend, though the stock is a controversial pick. x.com
AppLovin faces a long repair after its trend broke, even though its fundamentals rank in the top 30 of 2,000 stocks. Shares fell almost 60% from above $745 to near $315 after an August report, with revenue up 53% and an 84% EBITDA margin, narrowly missed its guidance midpoint, cracking the endless-beat assumption behind its multiple. Price sits below a falling 200-day average, and holders waiting for break-even must clear first. If the trend turns, 16.8x earnings for 37% growth would be rare. … Show more
AppLovin looks cheap at about 22x forward earnings, down 57% from its high, while growth and cash flow stay strong. Revenue grew 53% to $1.92B with an 84% EBITDA margin and $863M of quarterly free cash flow. The SEC closed its inquiry with no action, e-commerce advertiser spend hit a record, and model improvements after Q2 are driving a strong Q3 start. It bought back $551M of stock last quarter, with $1.8B still authorized. x.com