AppLovin's ad yield engine has run out of gas, setting up the same structural decay that hit The Trade Desk as ad spend consolidates into walled gardens. Conversion rates stalling around 1.4%, delayed AI rollouts and mounting litigation point to a fundamental tailspin that Piper Sandler's cautious call understates. Being down 60% this year is not a bottom; buying here is catching a falling knife on a broken narrative. x.com 

AppLovin faces a long repair after its trend broke, even though its fundamentals rank in the top 30 of 2,000 stocks. Shares fell almost 60% from above $745 to near $315 after an August report, with revenue up 53% and an 84% EBITDA margin, narrowly missed its guidance midpoint, cracking the endless-beat assumption behind its multiple. Price sits below a falling 200-day average, and holders waiting for break-even must clear first. If the trend turns, 16.8x earnings for 37% growth would be rare. … Show more

AppLovin's high growth may outlast market expectations, helping explain its cheap valuation. In SergeyCYW's forward P/E versus expected revenue growth comparison, it is in a league of its own, especially when earnings quality is considered. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AppLovin needs a very clean quarter to rebuild confidence. Investors question how much market-share runway its gaming ad business has left and how sustainable its very high margins are, and last quarter's model-upgrade cadence issues raised new execution concerns. Gaming ads must remain the central growth engine, since e-commerce will not be big enough for a while. x.com  x.com 

Meta's ad pricing and impressions still support its AI monetization case, but heavy spending has pushed free cash flow negative. Impressions rose about 10% and prices 14% as revenue reached $64.6 billion; FCF was negative $2.12 billion and a $9.89 billion state AG charge hit earnings. Scale only on weakness if comfortable with founder control under the planned non-voting Class C shares. Sustained cash burn would weaken the buyback and valuation case. x.com 

AppLovin's growth, liquidity, free cash flow and profitability make it the clear winner among beaten-down stocks with attractive fundamentals. Research Desk's chart shows EPS generally beating estimates, though the latest revenue missed. x.com 

Liftoff Mobile's margins are expanding nicely and closing in on AppLovin's, with room to go. That strengthens the case for a business similar to AppLovin trading at roughly half its free-cash-flow multiple by rough estimates. x.com 

The Trade Desk has shown many red flags, and a huge Q2 miss confirmed them. Revenue of $715M missed the $751M estimate, adjusted EPS fell 17%, and Q3 guidance of at least $650M revenue and about $160M EBITDA was far below estimates of $805M and $341M, per @wallstengine. It bought back $78M of stock while heading for that miss. Unlike AppLovin, it has not been very profitable for years, with heavy dilution and stock-based pay, slower growth and smaller scale. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AppLovin looks tempting after a massive reset, with some of the strongest fundamentals on the market, in an elite club with Palantir and CrowdStrike. Its price is down 57% from the highs, back to 2024 levels, and its P/E has fallen from 70x to a record-low 24x. Growth has decelerated from priced-for-perfection levels, but it is still a money machine, software-disruption fears are cooling and the stock is consolidating in a long-term support zone. The bottom is likely close. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AppLovin has zero moat in AI advertising, where 50 companies do the same thing and AI can do it without any of them. It is value-trap garbage, just another The Trade Desk, and all of these companies could be bankrupt someday. x.com  x.com