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Technology & Semiconductor Equity Commentary
NextVision's selloff to about 24x forward earnings looks unjustified for a 100%-plus grower in drones whose growth recently accelerated. Q2 was very strong and the company raised its revenue growth outlook. Lower gross margin might explain the drop, but that was true last quarter and gross margin improved in Q2. x.com x.comÂ
NextVision Stabilized Systems is no longer undervalued in any obvious way, even though it may be the best defense-tech business in the world. It trades at about 50 times FY26 earnings with 87.1% growth and net margins up to 61%; if growth slows to 50% next year, the 2027 multiple drops to 33x, which may still be reasonable given its sustained growth. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AeroVironment's 23% rally looks unjustified because the company is again signaling unimpressive growth, with its FY27 revenue growth target below 10%. x.comÂ
Unusual Machines is overdue for a news-driven rerating, as its edge-AI small drone project, reportedly a Trump favorite, trades at just 2x sales. The cards look heavily stacked toward that project being seen as a success and ultimately bigger than expected, and Trump-favored trades such as Dell and Intel are drawing interest. x.comÂ
