peony
Equity Investor & Researcher
Unusual Machines is overdue for a news-driven rerating, as its edge-AI small drone project, reportedly a Trump favorite, trades at just 2x sales. The cards look heavily stacked toward that project being seen as a success and ultimately bigger than expected, and Trump-favored trades such as Dell and Intel are drawing interest. x.com
Unusual Machines looks set to catch up with drone and defense peers after lagging them, making it the big winner from reports that the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, per the WSJ. Its CEO Allan Evans recently said he was disappointed its stock had not inflected like Kopin, LightPath and Ondas. x.com x.com
Unusual Machines' $5M investment in a $10M Draganfly raise doubles down on the US drone supply chain it already feeds parts into. Piper Sandler initiated at Overweight with a $38 target, expecting revenue to roughly double to $103M by 2027. A rounding-bottom breakout above $25.04 is the trigger to watch. x.com
Unusual Machines' growth is strong, but its valuation and cash flow keep it unattractive to own for now; confirmation of the Q4 production ramp is still pending. x.com
Unusual Machines has the ingredients for an explosive move: drone exposure, a clean cup formation and a 20% short float. x.com
Unusual Machines should rerate well because its thesis was always about being US made and US owned, with Trump ownership simply gravy. Per @BussinBiotech, recent reporting makes it the big winner, and its stock, which had lagged Kopin, LightPath and Ondas, looks about to change course. x.com
Unusual Machines' business sounds great on paper, but $11 million of trailing revenue against $15.7 million of stock-based compensation makes it a non-starter. Ondas was noted as a strategic investor in Unusual Machines' $150 million offering at $17 a share. x.com
The Trump administration's tariffs of up to 100% on foreign-made drones are bullish for American drone makers. Unusual Machines counts Donald Trump Jr. as an investor and adviser, and Ondas Holdings owns a company called American Robotics, making both obvious beneficiaries. x.com
Unusual Machines faces near-infinite drone component demand even if war ends and defense goes away. Replacing DJI alone is a $10B enterprise drone market, implying $3B+ for component makers and perhaps $13-15B in 4-5 years, mostly going to one or two leading suppliers. Besides scaling execution, the biggest risk is that drone makers shrink to one or two in five years and in-source their supply chain, though a US market this vast is unlikely to be served by only two. x.com
Unusual Machines looks expensive against its sales at $34.06. The commercial drone company trades at 33 times sales and 10 times next year's, while the industry usually gets 4 times. Four times next year's sales implies fair value of $19.11–24.32, and even that leans on forecasts sitting 33% above trailing figures, leaving the price 40% above the top of the range. x.com
Drones and robotics still look to have more upside as autonomy becomes real deployment rather than sci-fi, favoring Cognex, Red Cat, Ouster and Unusual Machines. Drones, sensors and real-world robotics deployments are lining up, and the administration is looking to fund parts of the drone ecosystem. The 2026 winners shared a filter of physical scarcity, non-negotiable demand and tape confirmation, and robotics and autonomy stand as their own megatrend, likely after some digestion first. x.com
