CryptoCondom
Crypto Market Commentary
Unusual Machines should rerate well because its thesis was always about being US made and US owned, with Trump ownership simply gravy. Per @BussinBiotech, recent reporting makes it the big winner, and its stock, which had lagged Kopin, LightPath and Ondas, looks about to change course. x.comÂ
The Trump administration's tariffs of up to 100% on foreign-made drones are bullish for American drone makers. Unusual Machines counts Donald Trump Jr. as an investor and adviser, and Ondas Holdings owns a company called American Robotics, making both obvious beneficiaries. x.comÂ
Unusual Machines is overdue for a news-driven rerating, as its edge-AI small drone project, reportedly a Trump favorite, trades at just 2x sales. The cards look heavily stacked toward that project being seen as a success and ultimately bigger than expected, and Trump-favored trades such as Dell and Intel are drawing interest. x.comÂ
Unusual Machines' growth is strong, but its valuation and cash flow keep it unattractive to own for now; confirmation of the Q4 production ramp is still pending. x.comÂ
Unusual Machines looks set to catch up with drone and defense peers after lagging them, making it the big winner from reports that the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, per the WSJ. Its CEO Allan Evans recently said he was disappointed its stock had not inflected like Kopin, LightPath and Ondas. x.com x.comÂ
Unusual Machines' $5M investment in a $10M Draganfly raise doubles down on the US drone supply chain it already feeds parts into. Piper Sandler initiated at Overweight with a $38 target, expecting revenue to roughly double to $103M by 2027. A rounding-bottom breakout above $25.04 is the trigger to watch. x.comÂ
Unusual Machines' business sounds great on paper, but $11 million of trailing revenue against $15.7 million of stock-based compensation makes it a non-starter. Ondas was noted as a strategic investor in Unusual Machines' $150 million offering at $17 a share. x.comÂ
Unusual Machines faces near-infinite drone component demand even if war ends and defense goes away. Replacing DJI alone is a $10B enterprise drone market, implying $3B+ for component makers and perhaps $13-15B in 4-5 years, mostly going to one or two leading suppliers. Besides scaling execution, the biggest risk is that drone makers shrink to one or two in five years and in-source their supply chain, though a US market this vast is unlikely to be served by only two. x.comÂ
Unusual Machines has the ingredients for an explosive move: drone exposure, a clean cup formation and a 20% short float. x.comÂ
Trump's 100% tariffs on imported drones, effective September 3, force the largest import substitution the drone industry has seen, favoring US makers. AeroVironment already builds at scale and won a $400M Army laser counter-drone contract; Kratos has a record $2.01B backlog; AEVEX's Phoenix Ghost is combat-proven, with a $503M backlog; Red Cat is the closest public DJI replacement; and Unusual Machines makes motors and flight controllers to replace Chinese parts, which the tariff also hits. … Show more
Unusual Machines stands to gain from Trump's drone supply-chain proclamation, which sets 100% tariffs on drones over 25 kg, docking stations and certain critical components, and 25% on broader components. The tariffs may squeeze low-cost assemblers, but for vertically integrated domestic players like Unusual Machines they can shake out smaller rivals. The open question is whether domestic yields and costs for flight-control chips and thermal imaging modules can catch up fast enough. x.comÂ
