Unusual Machines' growth is strong, but its valuation and cash flow keep it unattractive to own for now; confirmation of the Q4 production ramp is still pending. x.com
Johan Ekroth
AI Infrastructure/Space/Defense Investor, Bottleneck Research
Unusual Machines' business sounds great on paper, but $11 million of trailing revenue against $15.7 million of stock-based compensation makes it a non-starter. Ondas was noted as a strategic investor in Unusual Machines' $150 million offering at $17 a share. x.com
Unusual Machines looks expensive against its sales at $34.06. The commercial drone company trades at 33 times sales and 10 times next year's, while the industry usually gets 4 times. Four times next year's sales implies fair value of $19.11–24.32, and even that leans on forecasts sitting 33% above trailing figures, leaving the price 40% above the top of the range. x.com
Unusual Machines' $5M investment in a $10M Draganfly raise doubles down on the US drone supply chain it already feeds parts into. Piper Sandler initiated at Overweight with a $38 target, expecting revenue to roughly double to $103M by 2027. A rounding-bottom breakout above $25.04 is the trigger to watch. x.com
Unusual Machines is overdue for a news-driven rerating, as its edge-AI small drone project, reportedly a Trump favorite, trades at just 2x sales. The cards look heavily stacked toward that project being seen as a success and ultimately bigger than expected, and Trump-favored trades such as Dell and Intel are drawing interest. x.com
Unusual Machines has the ingredients for an explosive move: drone exposure, a clean cup formation and a 20% short float. x.com
Unusual Machines looks set to catch up with drone and defense peers after lagging them, making it the big winner from reports that the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, per the WSJ. Its CEO Allan Evans recently said he was disappointed its stock had not inflected like Kopin, LightPath and Ondas. x.com x.com