GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Unusual Machines looks expensive against its sales at $34.06. The commercial drone company trades at 33 times sales and 10 times next year's, while the industry usually gets 4 times. Four times next year's sales implies fair value of $19.11–24.32, and even that leans on forecasts sitting 33% above trailing figures, leaving the price 40% above the top of the range. x.com
Unusual Machines' growth is strong, but its valuation and cash flow keep it unattractive to own for now; confirmation of the Q4 production ramp is still pending. x.com
Unusual Machines' business sounds great on paper, but $11 million of trailing revenue against $15.7 million of stock-based compensation makes it a non-starter. Ondas was noted as a strategic investor in Unusual Machines' $150 million offering at $17 a share. x.com
Unusual Machines is overdue for a news-driven rerating, as its edge-AI small drone project, reportedly a Trump favorite, trades at just 2x sales. The cards look heavily stacked toward that project being seen as a success and ultimately bigger than expected, and Trump-favored trades such as Dell and Intel are drawing interest. x.com
Braze's premium looks unjustified at 7x EV/sales against 20% year-over-year revenue growth. It is a great company with a great product, but that does not make the stock worth the premium. x.com x.com
Unusual Machines' $5M investment in a $10M Draganfly raise doubles down on the US drone supply chain it already feeds parts into. Piper Sandler initiated at Overweight with a $38 target, expecting revenue to roughly double to $103M by 2027. A rounding-bottom breakout above $25.04 is the trigger to watch. x.com
