TJ
Stock/Options Trader, Volume at Support/Resistance, Publisher of Volume Stocks Newsletter
Unusual Machines' $5M investment in a $10M Draganfly raise doubles down on the US drone supply chain it already feeds parts into. Piper Sandler initiated at Overweight with a $38 target, expecting revenue to roughly double to $103M by 2027. A rounding-bottom breakout above $25.04 is the trigger to watch. x.com
Unusual Machines' bull pennant breakout looks real, backed by improving fundamentals. Q1 revenue rose 296% year over year to $8.1M with a $10.3M profit, the Pentagon floated equity stakes in drone makers including UMAC, and its Orlando plant expanded battery output, deepening its NDAA role. Holding the cleared trendline targets 25.94, 27.09 and 33.42, with the 200 EMA climbing beneath; losing it means a return to chop. x.com
Unusual Machines looks set to catch up with drone and defense peers after lagging them, making it the big winner from reports that the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, per the WSJ. Its CEO Allan Evans recently said he was disappointed its stock had not inflected like Kopin, LightPath and Ondas. x.com x.com
Unusual Machines is overdue for a news-driven rerating, as its edge-AI small drone project, reportedly a Trump favorite, trades at just 2x sales. The cards look heavily stacked toward that project being seen as a success and ultimately bigger than expected, and Trump-favored trades such as Dell and Intel are drawing interest. x.com
Unusual Machines' growth is strong, but its valuation and cash flow keep it unattractive to own for now; confirmation of the Q4 production ramp is still pending. x.com
Unusual Machines has the ingredients for an explosive move: drone exposure, a clean cup formation and a 20% short float. x.com
Unusual Machines faces near-infinite drone component demand even if war ends and defense goes away. Replacing DJI alone is a $10B enterprise drone market, implying $3B+ for component makers and perhaps $13-15B in 4-5 years, mostly going to one or two leading suppliers. Besides scaling execution, the biggest risk is that drone makers shrink to one or two in five years and in-source their supply chain, though a US market this vast is unlikely to be served by only two. x.com
Unusual Machines' business sounds great on paper, but $11 million of trailing revenue against $15.7 million of stock-based compensation makes it a non-starter. Ondas was noted as a strategic investor in Unusual Machines' $150 million offering at $17 a share. x.com
The Trump administration's tariffs of up to 100% on foreign-made drones are bullish for American drone makers. Unusual Machines counts Donald Trump Jr. as an investor and adviser, and Ondas Holdings owns a company called American Robotics, making both obvious beneficiaries. x.com
Draganfly's military revenue potential is promising, backed by its defense partnership earlier this year with US prime contractor Global Ordnance. Revenue is growing, and after a year of consolidation, a run of gap-up days points to a possible momentum shift. x.com
Unusual Machines looks expensive against its sales at $34.06. The commercial drone company trades at 33 times sales and 10 times next year's, while the industry usually gets 4 times. Four times next year's sales implies fair value of $19.11–24.32, and even that leans on forecasts sitting 33% above trailing figures, leaving the price 40% above the top of the range. x.com
Trump's 100% tariffs on foreign-made drones should send demand soaring for US drone makers and suppliers. AeroVironment has a $1.2B funded backlog; Kratos has a $2.1B backlog and jet drones with no foreign substitute; Ondas, the fastest grower, posted a record $83.8M quarter. Red Cat's Black Widow is an Army program of record, Unusual Machines makes 15,000 NDAA-compliant motors a month, AIRO has a $163M drone backlog and LightPath's US-made infrared optics become the default. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
