Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com 

Uber's distribution moat is taking a direct hit as Waymo plans to drop Uber and go direct in Austin and Atlanta by 2028, showing AVs do not need middleman apps. Tensions over safety, vehicle cleaning and regulatory lobbying have reached a breaking point. Separately, Uber's investment in Lucid is now worth zero as Lucid heads for bankruptcy after the Saudis stopped funding it. x.com 

Robotaxis could widen Uber's moat rather than destroy it, because its real advantage is the network matching huge pools of demand with whatever supply is available, not drivers' lack of negotiating power. Robotaxis change the supply but don't eliminate the network. The question is whether Uber becomes the toll road for autonomous mobility, letting Waymo and dozens of competing AV suppliers fight over the economics while Uber owns the customer, demand and dispatch layer. x.com 

Waymo is becoming the strongest disruptor to Uber and Lyft in US ride-hailing. Autonomous vehicles can compress the cost and margins of human ride-share sharply, and riders pick the cheapest option, where Waymo or Tesla would likely win; a Waymo rival to Uber Eats could do the same to delivery. Per the FT, Waymo is exploring a split from Uber, which only ever served as Google's distribution funnel. The near-term impact is negligible, but long term both look cooked in the US unless they act. … Show more

Uber's Waymo partnership looks to be on the brink, because once Waymo understands customer patterns it no longer needs Uber. x.com 

Uber's trips could keep growing even without a Waymo partnership because the ride-hail market may expand faster than Waymo takes share. Based on estimated inputs and Waymo's reported fleet plans, every modeled scenario has Uber trips growing, though its US trip share falls from about 73% to 69% by Q4 2028 in the target case. The model excludes take rate, pricing and Uber's AV capex. x.com 

Uber and Lyft are finished because Tesla's Cybercab is priced 40-50% below Waymo, Uber and Lyft. It also offers a better customer experience with higher margins. x.com 

Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Uber's network effects could make it the app robotaxi fleets need to keep their cars fully operational. It is one of the best platforms on earth and a five-year buy at today's valuation, with opportunity too compelling to pass up despite shares falling about 25% in the past year on robotaxi fears. Bookings grew 24% last quarter and trailing free cash flow exceeded $10 billion. Waymo and Tesla could choose to bypass Uber; Waymo already runs its own app in most of its cities. x.com 

Uber is pouring money into the Minneapolis drivers' union to support its fight against Waymo and Tesla as the robotaxi era finally arrives. The StarTribune reports that Minneapolis may require driverless vehicles to have someone in the driver's seat. x.com